模式參數與數值地形不確定性於洪氾區劃設影響之研究

The analysis of impact on floodplain delineation under uncertainties from hydrology,hydraulic,and terrain

江俊賢(Jun- Xian Jiang)

指導教授 ： 張哲豪

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2009.00016

摘要

近年來透過淹水模擬將洪氾區域以圖形化呈現之洪氾區劃設，已成為洪災管理中不可或缺的非工程方法。由於淹水模擬之模式參數與數值地形可能因測量誤差、環境變遷...等因素，造成模式參數與數值地形具有不確定性。而受不確定性影響，「洪氾區」劃設範圍會受到其變動性與不確定性影響。依現行法規的規範，將直接影響土地所有人的權益與土地使用的權力。
綜觀以上所述，本研究以二維格網的形式，結合水深不確定性，提出機率型態之風險分級劃設之方法。將「洪氾區」範圍以機率的方式進行分級管制，依溢淹發生機率之高低，將洪氾區劃分為土地管制與警示二種。因此，本研究擬以基隆河流域為研究範圍，利用蒙地卡羅模擬法，產生不同水文水理模式參數與帶有觀測誤差的數值地形，搭配SOBEK二維水理模式進行淹水模擬。並考量基隆河流域在環境變遷或因氣候變遷造成的極端降雨事件，其所面臨洪氾區域是否需修正。
透過環境變遷與氣候變遷之模擬案例，可以得出河川流域在環境變遷或因氣候變遷造成的極端降雨事件影響下，其洪氾區域應重新劃設或修正。藉此，利用機率的方式劃設「洪氾區」範圍，客觀的評估土地管制與警示的洪氾區域，以減少潛在災害風險地區的土地利用，降低人民生命與財產的損失，並達到有效管制與警示洪氾威脅之目標。

關鍵字

洪氾區 ； 不確定性分析 ； 蒙地卡羅模擬法 ； 數值地形模型

並列摘要

Flood area delineation due to uncertainty from hydrology parameters, digital terrain model of measurement errors , environmental changes ... ,resulting in "flood area" delineation range with its variation and uncertainty. Affected by uncertainty, "flood area" will be subjected the scope of change and its uncertainties. According to present laws and regulations standard,immediate influence land all person's rights and interests and landuse authority. This study of two-dimensional grid forms, combined with uncertainty in water depth, the probability of the risk pattern classification methods designated. The "flood plain" means the scope of a chance to grade control, according to the overflow level of flood occurrence probability, will be flood control and land divided into two kinds of alerts. Therefore, this study was to be through the Monte Carlo simulation method, the use of different hydrology parameters set the value and digital terrain model of measurement errors range, with Sobek , two-dimensional water rationale models to study the area of the Keelung River basin, simulation model parameters uncertainty factor in established the impact of flood area. And consider changes in the Keelung River basin or in the environment caused by climate change due to extreme rainfall events, it faces the need to amend the regional flood. In this way, the way the use of probability designated "flood area" the scope and objective assessment of land control and warning of the flood plain area, in order to reduce disaster risk areas of potential land use, to reduce people's lives and property losses, and achieve an effective flood control and warning the threat of the target.

並列關鍵字

Floodplain ； Uncertainty ； Monte Carlo Simulation ； Digital Terrain

參考文獻

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[87] 潘麒帆，區域淹水風險之分級分區，碩士論文，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所，2008

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