地震防災管理系統建置之研究

Study on Development in Management System of Disaster Prevention on Earthquake

許家銓(Chia-Chuan Hsu)

指導教授 ： 宋裕祺

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/工程科技研究所/博士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2012.00075

摘要

台灣位處歐亞大陸版塊和菲律賓海版塊的交界，屬環太平洋地震帶，每年都會因版塊間的相互擠壓而造成地震，屬地震頻繁地帶，為數眾多的既有交通設施及建築物將不可避免的會遭受到強烈地震侵襲的威脅。2011年3月11日，在日本東北地方發生規模9強震，除了地震本身之外，也引發大海嘯，造成生命財產嚴重的損失。當強震造成災害的畫面傳送到全世界，讓世人震驚的除了災難的無情之外，更見識到日本災難預警系統的效率，與民眾避難的秩序。綜觀近數十年來的國內外地震災害，構造物受害之實例甚多，在這些地震災害經驗中，均顯示地震災害對社會所造成的衝擊與經濟損失，是相當嚴重而深遠。因此，若能有效建構一套地震災損評估系統，於地震發生前提供地震災害災損之境況模擬，據此擬定相關地震災害防救事項，有效執行災害預防、災害搶救、事故處理、災情勘察以及善後處置、復建等相關事宜，並於地震發生時，推估建築物倒塌及人員死傷等災害資訊，可於初期迅速採取緊急應變作為，減少地震災害損失。
本研究將參考國內外較知名之震災評估系統，如TELES(台灣)、REDARS(美國)、地震被害想定支援ツール及簡易型地震被害想定システム(日本)建立一套地震防災管理系統。在地表加速度(Peak Ground Accerlation, PGA)推估方面，本研究參考美國REDARS，以台灣自1990年到2003年間地震規模超過5.0之地震測站記錄為基礎，針對台灣各強地動測站進行地表加速度衰減率之迴歸分析，並將台灣國土網格化，由各網格之鄰近測站推估網格之PGA值；以各網格內之公私有建築物及人口資料為基礎，參考並修正TELES之災損評估模式，計算出特定地震作用下各網格之建築物倒塌數及人口傷亡數等資訊。橋梁損壞推估部分由全台省道橋梁之迴歸分析結果訂定橋梁易損性曲線，計算震後橋梁之功能喪失率。本研究亦將導入脆弱度之概念，假設橋梁受損喪失功能時對周圍環境造成之影響，此分析成果可供政府作為橋梁補強優先順序之挑選。本研究所開發之系統亦包含豐富的建物資料庫，包括：網格設籍人口、網格各類公私有建築物數量、重要設施(包括醫療、警消、電廠、加油站等)資訊等。在系統架構設計與實作方面，考量計算效能、擴充彈性、容易使用的操作介面與豐富的資料產出，本研究將使用物件導向技術進行系統開發。整個系統以推估專案為中心，包括：推估專案、資料模型、計算核心、可擴充模組介面及視圖顯示等元件，控管整個系統運作。系統實作將以Windows為作業平台，使用.NET Framework做為基礎應用程式的架構，資料庫將使用MySQL為基礎，GIS地圖元件使用MapWinGIS元件，而可擴充模組介面中的腳本語言將使用IronPython。分析成果將以視覺化輔以文字呈現，將包含各網格建築物之倒塌數、各網格人員傷亡數、橋梁功能喪失數、各重要設施震後現況預估等資訊，此成果可供政府做為災前演練及災後初期迅速採取緊急應變作為之用。
本研究結合目前國內外之災損評估模式，由網格化之資訊推估震後災損情形，並藉由簡易明瞭之操作介面與容易擴充的架構，使後續擴充較具彈性及便利性。未來若將各地方政府提供更詳盡之資料整合入本系統，則可做為各地方政府擬定相關地震災害防救事項之用。

關鍵字

地震衰減律 ； 易損性曲線 ； 地震災損評估 ； 物件導向

並列摘要

Taiwan is situated in a collision zone between the Philippine Sea and the Eurasian tectonic plates and therefore suffers from earthquakes frequently. Frequent earthquakes have inevitably caused significant damages to the existing buildings/bridges in Taiwan. The damages of these buildings/bridges due to earthquake not only lead to the loss of many innocent lives, but also interfere with the rescue efforts, generating countless amount of cost loss to the society and economy.
Before the earthquake can be accurately simulated, the earthquake attenuation relationship has to be established. The data base used in the analysis includes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) recorded from 615 strong motion stations in Taiwan for the earthquakes occurred in year 1992 to 2006 with a magnitude larger than 5.0. By nonlinear regression analysis for these data base, the attenuation relationship of PGA for each single strong motion station was obtained successfully. By dividing the area of Taiwan into grids with a certain size, the PGA for each grid can be obtained by interpolating the PGAs of three nearest strong motion stations prior established. As a result, the seismic intensity map representing PGA everywhere in Taiwan caused by a specific earthquake can be determined in a short moment and displayed visually. The accuracy of the simulated results was also verified through the comparison with the data collected by Central Weather Bureau’s (CWB) in the past three years.
This dissertation established an earthquake disaster assessment system (EDAS) for the existing buildings/bridges. The data base of pre-calculated fragility curves of buildings/bridges was implemented in the system to identify their damage status and the corresponding economic loss shortly after the strike of an earthquake. Besides that, the data such as the population, area of various buildings for each grid was collected as the base for estimation of life loss. In the system, the Object-Oriented Programming (OOP) was adopted as the core to facilitate further extension. The .NET Framework as computer language and the MySQL as database were employed to perform the process of earthquake disaster assessment. In addition, the MapWinGIS component was used because of being a freeware, benefiting the users GIS utility without charge.
This dissertation constructed a platform for management of disaster prevention on earthquake. The first merit of which is that the simulated results based on a specific earthquake are able to be determined for maneuvers of disaster prevention pre-earthquake. Secondly, associated with the rapid reports of PGA at certain stations announced by CWB soon after earthquake, the developed system can give a reliable seismic intensity map all over Taiwan and a rapid estimation of seismic loss to help the plan of emergent rescue. Finally, this system reveals a user-friendly environment that benefits the practical application to disaster prevention on earthquake.

並列關鍵字

Attenuation law ； Fragility curve ； Seismic resistant evaluation ； Object-Oriented technique

參考文獻

17. 張永叡，地震加速度衰減律公式於橋梁災損評估之應用，碩士論文，國立臺北科技大學土木與防災研究所，台北，2006。

21. 葉錦勳，台灣地震損失評估系統—TELES，國家地震工程研究中心，2003。

23. 葉錦勳、簡文郁，地震危害度分析與震災境況模擬技術整合研究(Ⅱ)，國家地震工程研究中心，2007。

25. 鄭錦桐、林柏伸、謝寶珊、李錫堤，「新一代強地動衰減式對工址地震危害度分析之影響」，中興工程季刊，第109期，2010，第31-40頁。

39. 何明錦、蔡益超、宋裕祺，鋼筋混凝土建築物耐震能力評估手冊—視窗化輔助分析系統 SERCB Win2012，內政部建築研究所，2012。