數位家庭情境發展對儲存媒介產品影響之探討

The Influence Study of Digital Home Scenario Denelopment to Digital Storage Product

韓明境(Ming-Ching Han)

指導教授 ： 吳忠敏

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/商業自動化與管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

由於個人電腦快速的發展與普及，同時帶領著週邊數位產品的成長，隨著高速寬頻網路成熟發展形成數位家庭基礎架構。目前大部分的研究報告著重於數位家庭以及主流產業的探討，本研究主要探討在數位家庭發展的情境下對儲存媒介產品的發展所產生何種的影響，以及在數位家庭發展影響的情境和其因應對策。
本研究係屬於探索性研究，較適合採用質化研究（Qualitative research method）的方法，因此本研究以情境分析法為主，以次級資料分析法找出影響儲存媒介產品發展的關鍵決策因素群和外部驅動力量群，透過專家深度訪談法獲得：數位家庭產品聚焦後的六大產品，確定在技術發展、市場產業和總體環境下的關鍵決策因素和外在的驅動力量及不確定軸。接著以德菲法界定主要關鍵決策因子和外在驅動因子衝擊程度和不確定性的評估。最後由專家組成的小組透過情境分析法對未來儲存媒介產品發展情境與情境意涵進行分析。
本研究經由情境分析之後獲得四個未來發展情境，其中專家認為最有可能的發展情境為是以產品技術的發展樂觀，擴散普及程度樂觀和跨產業整合程度悲觀，同時探討出儲存媒介產品在此情境下最佳的發展策略和產品藍圖。

關鍵字

數位家庭 ； 情境分析法

並列摘要

Due to the rapid development and popularization of Personal Computer and it also take the lead of the growing of computer peripheral products. The fundamental frame of Digital Home is formed by high speed wideband internet. The current studies are focusing on digital home and the main stream industrial, therefore, this study is probing into the influence of digital storage product under the development scenario of digital home and discover the appropriate strategic.
This study is categorized as Exploration Study, the methodology of this study is appropriate for Qualitative Research Method. Therefore, this study adopts the Scenario Analysis as primary method, through the Method of Secondary Analysis to come out the group of Key Decision Factor which will be the influence of digital storage product and External Drivers and Forces. After that, this study goes through the Method of In-depth Interview with the professionals who are well known in the relative industrial for obtaining the 6 majority digital product in focused digital home and confirm the Decision Factors under the Development of Technology, Marketing and Industrial Environment and the External Drives and Forces and Uncertainty Axes. Followed by the method of In-Depth Interview, this study uses Delphi Method to define the Key Decision Factor and the impact and uncertainty of External Drivers and Forces. In the end this study use the Scenario Analysis to analyses the development scenario and the scenario meaning to future digital storage product by a group formed by the professionals.
The study obtains 4 future development scenarios after proceeded the Scenario Analysis also all professionals agree the highest potential scenario of development in the future is based on Uncertainty Axes of Optimistic Products and Technologies and Distributed Popularization, pessimistic Inter-Field Integrality, meanwhile, this study come out the result of best Development Strategic and Product Roadmap of Digital Storage Product under this scenario.

並列關鍵字

Digital Home ； Scenario Analysis Method

參考文獻

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