以氣候相關天災之經濟損失及生命價值評估臺灣溫室氣體減量效益

The Evaluation of the Benefits from Greenhouse Gases Reduction by the Analysis of Cost from Weather-Related Disaster and the Value of Human Life in Taiwan

游苓楷(Ling-Kai Yu)

指導教授 ： 翁祖炘 ； 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/資源工程研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00104

摘要

臺灣近年自然災害頻傳提醒我們，溫室氣體減量行動的延遲將使未來付出更大的代價。 Stern 於 2006 年研究指出應對氣候變化挑戰的關鍵是穩定溫室氣體，全球每排放1公噸二氧化碳，會造成至少85美元的損失。 Friedhelm 於2006年更指出全球有 80% 的經濟受氣候所影響，以 2002年為例，全球有 25 兆 1870 億美元之經濟活動受氣候影響。
本研究針對臺灣地區進行評估臺灣溫室氣體減量效益，即因減緩氣候變化和溫室氣體排放，以減少天災經濟損失。本研究分析收集臺灣地區過去（1961∼2009）氣候變遷相關資料，如包括全球二氧化碳排放量、臺灣國內生產毛額（GDP）、臺灣人口數、臺灣天災次數、臺灣年平均溫度、臺灣年平均降雨量、臺灣天災經濟損失及臺灣天災死亡人數，利用線性迴歸模式推估未來二氧化碳排放所造成之臺灣地區天災之經濟總損失，進而計算每公噸二氧化碳之環境成本。並整合空氣資源整合效益模式（Air Resources Co-Benefits Model, ARCoB），量化交通部門及住商部門之空氣污染與溫室氣體減量效益及評估我國規劃中的能源稅政策。
研究結果顯示，臺灣地區 2100年每公噸二氧化碳排放將造成NT$ 757.52（US$ 23.56/tCO2）天災經濟總損失，其中含每百萬公噸二氧化碳造成 2.598人天災死亡人數（約NT$ 1.37億經濟損失），天災生命價值損失佔天災經濟總損失之比例，由 2010 年 40% 至逐漸提升 2100 年 79% ，顯示未來天災經濟總損失將以生命價值損失為主。
交通部門減量行動之效益顯示，油電混合車為四種環保車輛中經濟效益最高者，相較於汽油車可節省民眾經濟損失 1,684元/年*輛，其次依序為電動汽車 1,385元/年*輛、液化石油氣車 1,002元/年*輛及效益較低之新柴油引擎車 839元/年*輛；健康效益方面，電動汽車為四種環保車輛中健康效益最高者，相較於汽油車可節省增加民眾平均壽命 33人*日/輛，其次依序為新柴油引擎車31人*日/輛、油電混合車 29人*日/輛以及效益較低之液化石油氣車 27人*日/輛。住商部門之減量經濟效益顯示補助推動節能標章商品減量行動可節省約49億元經濟總損失，共可延長每人約 0.116日終生平均壽命，為最佳減量行動。
本研究將天災經濟損失內部化至油品、燃料煤及天然氣之估算結果與 97 年5 月 21 日行政院部門制定之能源稅比較，結果顯示行政院能源稅開徵至民國 105 年之金額遠高於本研究估算至西元 2100 之歷年內部化天災經濟總損失至油品及天然氣，天災經濟損失內部化至燃料煤方面，未來其價額高於行政院部門制定之能源稅。

關鍵字

溫室氣體 ； 迴歸分析 ； 天災經濟總損失 ； 生命價值 ； 空氣資源整合效益模式 ； 能源稅

並列摘要

In recent years, the weather-related disasters had reminded us that the price would be getting higher if the greenhouse gases reduction was late in the future. Stern (2006) revealed that stabilizing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the key to tackle climate-change challenge and the marginal cost of damage might be around US$85/t CO2e. Friedhelm (2006) also revealed that 80% of the global economic loss was caused by climate change. Take year 2002 for example, the global economic loss caused by climate change was US$25.187 trillion/year.
The global carbon dioxide emissions and the statistical data for Taiwan—gross domestic product (GDP), the population, the number of disasters, annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, the economic losses from natural disasters, and the number of deaths— were collected in this study. A linear regression model between the CO2 emission from Taiwanese and the abovementioned statistical data for Taiwan was developed in this study and it had been applied to estimate the marginal cost of weather-related disasters. In addition, an “Air Resources Co-Benefits Model” was developed in this study to estimate the benefit from the reduction of air pollutants and greenhouse gases on the transport, residential and commercial sectors and to analyze the planning energy tax policy
The estimation showed that in year 2100, the marginal cost of weather-related disasters would be NT$ 757.52/t CO2 (US$23.56/t CO2), which contained 2.598deaths /Mt CO2 that could be transformed into dollar term of NT$ 1.37 billion by the value of statistical life (VSL). The value of human life would gradually take from 40% to 79% in year 2010-2100 and would become the major part of the cost of weather-related disasters.
For the transport sector, the comparison among four kinds of alternative fuel vehicles showed that the benefit from replacing gasoline cars with the hybrid electric vehicles was estimated to be NT$1,684year-vehicle, which is the highest of the fours; the benefits from replacing that with the electric vehicles (EVs), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cars, and new diesel engine vehicles were NT$1,385 /year-vehicle, NT$1,002 /year-vehicle, and NT$839 /year-vehicle, respectively. The averted loss of life expectancy (LLE) from replacing gasoline cars with the EVs was estimated to be 33 day/ person-vehicle, which is the highest of the fours; the averted LLE from replacing gasoline cars with the new diesel engine vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle, and LPG cars were 31 day/ person-vehicle, 29 day/ person-vehicle, and 27day/ person-vehicle, respectively.
For the residential and commercial sectors, the benefit and the averted LLE from the subsidization of energy saving products were estimated to be NT$4.9 billion and 0.116 day/ person, which is the best of the threes.
Compare the energy taxes on fossil fuels —planned by Taiwan government on May 21, 2008—with the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions, the energy taxes on oil and natural gas in 2016 would be much higher than the marginal cost of weather-related disasters in 2100. However, the energy tax on coal in 2016 would be lower than the marginal cost of weather-related disasters.

並列關鍵字

Greenhouse gases ； Regression Analysis ； Cost of Weather-related Disasters ； Value of Statistical Life ； ARCoB model ； Energy tax

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