一個以貝氏網路為基礎的風險評估工具

A Risk Assessment Tool using Bayesian Network

林子鐸(David Lin)

指導教授 ： 鄭有進 ； 謝金雲

國立臺北科技大學/電資學院/資訊工程系研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

無資料

關鍵字

風險評估 ； 貝氏網路

並列摘要

The purpose of risk assessment is to determine the levels of risk in a particular course of action, and it is usually used to identify areas in which safety can be improved, and its importance has been widely recognized and accepted. A Bayesian network is a carrier of the conditional independencies of a set of variables, and it is based on the Bayes’ theorem, and it provides an efficient way to model the risks with their cause and effect relationships. In this thesis, we have proposed a tool called RAT in order to assist the risk assessment activities, and it takes advantage by providing a user friendly GUI and facilitates users to establish and experiment Bayesian networks. In addition, users can spot the differences between each node of a Bayesian network at different time, and it helps to have a better understanding on the trend of a node’s risk level from time to time, and it can act as information assistant while revising the network.

The tool can save a large amount of calculation time and provides a more efficient way to assess the risks.

並列關鍵字

Risk Assessment ； Bayesian Network

參考文獻

[1] Holton, Glyn A. (2004). "Defining Risk", Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25.

[2] I. Ben-Gal (2007), Bayesian Networks, in F. Ruggeri, R. Kenett, and F. Faltin (editors), Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability, John Wiley & Sons.

[3] Bayes, T. 1764. "An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53, 370-418.

[4] Gregory F. Cooper, The computational complexity of probabilistic inference using Bayesian belief networks, Artificial Intelligence, Volume 42 , Issue 2-3 (March 1990), 393-405.

[5] VT Covello, PM Sandman, P Slovic, Effective Risk Communication, 1989, Appendix C, 10-15.