在不同風險預測精準度下，專案作業未防 範風險發生機率的數量評估

The Quantitative Assessment of Uncovered Risk for Project Activity under Different Risk Forecast Precisions

林家豪(Chia-Hao Lin)

指導教授 ： 林逾先

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/商業自動化與管理研究所/碩士(2006年)

摘要

在目前來說，欲完全掌控專案風險只是一個願景，尤其是現實生活中總是不斷運行著「莫非定律」：“凡有機會出差錯之處多半會出差錯”，因此對於專案風險事件的產生往往只能採取事前的預測來加以預防及應對。
本研究對專案作業中未防範風險事件的發生，透過貝氏定理建立量化模式進行數據的計算與圖表的繪製，期能協助專案經理人了解「莫非定律」對於專案作業中未防範風險事件發生所造成預測誤差之詮釋，進而有效地監控風險、參與風險回應計畫的擬定與執行，使得專案團隊圓滿達成目標績效。本研究之貢獻在於：

1. 對於專案作業中未防範風險而言，本研究所提供之量化模式具有理論完備、使用上簡易便捷、實用性高等優點。
2. 本研究以一遊戲軟體開發專案為例驗證所建立之模式，確實可以提供專案作業決策執行上之輔助。
3. 根據過往文獻，少有進行「莫非定律」對於專案風險上之應用討論，本研究透過量化數據、圖表的呈現協助專案經理人掌控專案風險。

關鍵字

專案風險 ； 貝氏定理 ； 莫非定律

並列摘要

It is an ambition to control project risk completely in these days, especially as there is Murphy’s Law: If something can go wrong, it will. Prediction in advance is the only way to prevent and deal with the occurrence of project risk events. In this thesis, aim at calculating and graphing the probabilities of uncovered risk events of project activities through Bayes’ Theorem in order to assist project managers. The contributions of the thesis are as follows:
1. Regard to the uncovered risk, the quantitative formula in the thesis is equipped with the advantages of easy using, practical.
2. I test the formula by a example of game software developing project and find that it is assistant to the strategy planning for sure.
3. According to the references, there is no thesis about the quantitative assessment of uncovered risk for project activity, this thesis is the first one made to help project managers to control project risks.

並列關鍵字

Project Risk

參考文獻

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[15] Kerzner Harold, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, John Wiley & Sons, 2001.

[17] Project Management Institute Standards Committee, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, PMBOK® Guide 2000.