地震災損推估系統之風險分析模式

Risk Analysis Model of Earthquake Loss Estimation System

張文彥(Wen-Yan Chang)

指導教授 ： 張寬勇

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

地震發生難以事先預測、預防，所帶來的損失更是難以估計，故各國均有發展地震災害損失評估系統，平時以模擬之損失數據進行防災整備，而災時冀能於第一時間推估可能的災損，並派遣適當的救災資源前往救助。目前國內所使用的地震災害損失評估系統TELES，經多年來的研究與努力，已將相關之係數本土化，並實際投入使用；國內消防署亦委託學者開發一套簡易型地震災害模擬系統，操作簡易，除可作為救災之參考亦可為一般居民防災教育使用。然而地震災害發生，第一時間測得之地震資料可能會與實際情形有所差異，故本研究假設可能造成台北市最大災損之震源點位，並以規模、位置及深度進行亂數產生，輸入TELES以及簡易型地震災害模擬系統，針對震災早期評估模擬分析，評估在第一時間獲取的地震基本資料與實際地震間有所誤差時，將為救災資源派遣增加多少風險機率。
根據模擬假設的結果顯示，地震資料的差異確實會影響到救災人力的派遣，在TELES的模擬中大約會有將近20%的風險機率，而在簡易型地震災害模擬系統中會增加將近10%的風險機率。

關鍵字

地震 ； 風險分析 ； 震災早期評估 ； 地震災害損失評估系統

並列摘要

Since earthquakes can not be accurately predicted and prevented, the resulting damages are often beyond computation. For this reason, many countries have their own loss estimation systems in regard to earthquake catastrophes. Usually, the loss estimation system is used to administer disaster prevention by applying simulated loss data. When disaster strikes, it is used to immediately estimate possible damages, followed by sending suitable rescue resources. The “Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System” (TELES), after many years of research and hard work, has localized related coefficients and has been put into practice. The national fire agency has also commissioned scholars to develop a simple earthquake catastrophe simulation system to serve as the reference for disaster-relieving mechanisms, as well as disaster prevention education for all citizens. When an earthquake occurs, the earthquake data obtained at the earliest response could possibly differ from the actual situation. Based on this fact, this study hypothesized the focus of the earthquake that can cause the severest damage in Taipei city and used the earthquake scale, location and depth, for random number generation and then entered the numbers into both TELES and the simple earthquake catastrophe simulation system. With this method, this study attempted to simulate the analysis on the early seismic loss estimation, as well as to assess the probability of risk that should be added to the rescue resource dispatch when the earthquake data obtained at the earliest response is incongruent with the actual situation.
Assumptions based on simulation results show that differences in seismic data which will definitely affect the manpower to send to disaster relief, in the simulation of TELES and about nearly 20% of the risk probability, and in The Simulate System of The Earthquake Disaster Damage will be increased by almost 10% of the risk probability.

並列關鍵字

Earthquake ； Risk Analysis ； Early Seismic Loss Estimation ； Earthquake Loss Estimation System

參考文獻

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