日本旅遊商品購買行為之研究

A study of the purchase behavior in the traveling to Japan

張倉銘(Tsang-Ming Chang)

指導教授 ： 邱志洲

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/管理學院經營管理EMBA專班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00428

摘要

在這一個資訊爆炸的時代，每天生活中的各種消費行為都被記錄成各行各業的交易資訊，使得資料(Data)大量累積，進而形成許多有用的資訊(Information)。經由資料庫內的知識探索(Knowledge Discovery)，及資料挖掘(Data Mining)的技術運用，使得資料挖掘後，能協助企業取得消費者有關知識並創造競爭優勢及行銷策略的參考依據，引發廣大的重視與研究。

由於消費者的異質性(Heterogeneity)與動態性(Dynamic)難以掌握，而運用層級貝氏模式(Hierarchical Baysian Model, HBM)的研究，可幫助企業進行行銷活動及產品設計時做為重要的參考依據，並可針對個別顧客購買行為的差異進行分析，更能充分運用隱藏於顧客之間的訊息。所謂的層級貝氏模式是結合了先驗機率(prior distribution)與概似函數(likelihood function) 來針對不可觀測的數量（包括參數及預測值）進行其後驗分配 (posterior distribution) 的推論。

本篇論文將以旅行業的產品銷售資料庫為主，進行層級貝氏模式研究，進而幫助企業於行銷之中找出策略與方向，更瞭解消費者的需求。並可使得，在銷售前，市場區隔與選擇目標市場的攫取，及產品的研發與定價策略的訂定，更貼近顧客端的需求；在銷售中，了解消費者行為，便可選擇更佳的銷售地點與通路，並整合行銷傳播與網路行銷；在銷售後，可營造及加深顧客關係與品牌管理，進而研發新產品及整合行銷策略。

關鍵字

資料挖掘 ； 貝氏模式 ； 市場區隔 ； 消費者行為

並列摘要

In the information explosion of times, the consumer behavior of all life walks have been recorded into information, the information (data) accumulated a lot, and the formation into many useful information, hence through the knowledge discovery, data mining technology, as data excavation will be a reference to help the enterprises gathering the knowledge furthermore to establish the market competition also planning the strategy meanwhile; that is the purpose of the study to broad attention of data mining and knowledge research.
In addition, because of consumers’ (Heterogeneity) and Dynamic are difficult to be controlled, hence we will utilize the theory of hierarchical Baysian model, HBM to help the enterprises for marketing activities and product design, besides we will focus the research on individual differentiation of consumer behaviors and hope to make good use of the hidden information.
The so-called HBM is combined with the theory of prior distribution and likelihood function in order to come out an inference on the not observing figure (including parameters and projected) which will be processed by the posterior distribution.
The papers have focused on utilizing the database of travel industry, and combined the theory of HBM to make more relevant researches, in order to help enterprises to identify strategy, direction and understanding the demand of customers. We believe the study must be helpful to define the market segment, target market and product development and price strategy before any sales activities in the travel field, furthermore to close to their clients and understand the needs; in sales, to understand the behavior of consumers can better sales and distribution, meanwhile integrated marketing communications and Internet marketing, besides that will keep solid relationship with customers also increase the brand equity at the same time, which in turn to help firms to make a development of new products and integrated marketing strategies.

並列關鍵字

data mining ； Baysian model ； Segment markets ； consumer behavior

參考文獻

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