運用GIS多準則評估海嘯脆弱度分析-以印尼班達亞齊市為例

Using GIS-MCE Analysis for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia

AzrielZaini(Azriel Zaini)

指導教授 ： 彭光輝

國立臺北科技大學/設計學院/設計學院創意與永續建築研究外國學生專班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2014.00663

摘要

縱觀歷史，海嘯事件已造成的任何一類自然災害的死亡人數最多之一。在最近幾年，世界在印度洋和東日本為海嘯災難震驚了。 2004年印度洋海嘯導致超過250萬人死亡，由於災害的特定條件，包括災害善後管理不善。在那個時候，沒有海嘯災害緩解措施（如一個早期預警系統）的地方。與此相反，在日本，海嘯2011年發揮上配備了世界上最好的海嘯減災戰略和預警系統的國家之一它的主要作用。儘管19000人要么死亡或失踪的海嘯2011年的結果，這兩種情況證明，在沒有災害應急管理的，死亡率，以及引起諸如海嘯災害的財政和結構性的損失，都大大增加。最終，這種損失依賴於該地區，以盡量減少災害的影響，以及努力的規模作出減少感染危險的能力。

漏洞評估是減災管理中最重要的組成部分之一。因此，本研究的目的是評估的幾個領域在班達亞齊城的海嘯漏洞。評估結合使用地理信息系統（GIS ） ，並應用多準則評價（ MCE ）的過程，並進行了研究，在宏觀和微觀兩個尺度。被調查的更廣泛的地區是沿海地區（宏觀） ，已受到多個地理空間變量分析，通過西納加（參考）改編自先前的研究。該變量是地形高程和坡度，海嘯方向的地形關係，和沿海靠近。作為一種新型的這項研究的組成部分，層次分析散文（ AHP ）已被用於構造地理空間變量的權重方案。

本研究還旨在創建脆弱性指數（ VI）的地圖，在班達亞齊城四區的樓宇，以及變量從Papathoma漏洞海嘯評估（ PVTA ）方案，包括層建築，材料採用了這種評估，的基礎上，可移動的物體，地面平面圖，形狀和方向，以及保存條件。所有評估都成立的MCE方法，並結合地理信息系統建立班達亞齊城區域的可靠和全面的脆弱性地圖。

層次分析法（AHP ）已經在MCE用於創建相對加權輸出所有變量，並基於成對比較了一系列比矩陣的判斷來計算層次結構中每個變量的權重。為了避免主觀性的判斷得分王， 11位專家進行了磋商對變量的比較他們的獨立評估。

該研究的主要成果是基於海嘯的高度和淹沒，各級對現有的建築結構影響的嚴重程度，以及地形的不同程度的脆弱性之間的區別基於GIS的海嘯脆弱性指數地圖的形式。在班達亞齊城市的大部分建築和環境已經確定，如果海嘯到達的高度超過三米，撞擊點是非常脆弱的。因此，可以得出結論，建築物，已通過重建和恢復期間自2004年以來的災情發展，很容易受到海嘯。

優勢，為生產這些地圖可以由規劃者被用於建立任何潛在的海岸線發展的區劃方案，考慮到海嘯的區域和結構的敏感性。因此，一些在高風險地區的未來發展提出建議也被提出來的亞齊政府，並可能被用來作為當前救災工作的評估工具，以及用於更精確的建築法規的發展在這些地區。

關鍵字

自然災害 ； 脆弱性評估 ； 海嘯災害 ； 地理信息系統 ； 多準則評估分析

並列摘要

Throughout history, tsunami events have claimed one of the highest death tolls of any category of natural disaster. In recently years, the world shocked by two tsunami disasters in the Indian Ocean and East Japan. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami resulted in the deaths of over 250 thousand people, due to particular conditions of the disaster including the poor management of disasters aftermath. At that time, there were no tsunami disasters mitigation measures (such as an early warning systems) in place. Contrastingly, in Japan, the tsunami of 2011 exerted its main effect on a country that equipped with one of the best tsunami mitigation strategies and early warning systems in the world. Even though 19,000 people were either dead or missing as a result of the tsunami of 2011, these two cases prove that in the absence of disaster emergency management, the mortality rates, along with financial and structural losses caused by disasters such as Tsunamis, are greatly increased. Ultimately, such losses depend on the ability of the region to minimize the impact of disasters, as well as the scale of effort made to reduce vulnerability to the hazard.

Vulnerability Assessment is one of the most important components of disaster mitigation management. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the Tsunami vulnerability of several areas in Banda Aceh city. The assessment incorporated the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS), and applied a process of Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE), and studies were carried out on both macro and micro scales. The broader region under investigation is a coastal area (macro scale), which has been subjected to multiple geospatial variables analysis, adapted from previous research by Sinaga (reference). The variables are topographic elevation and slope, topographic relation to tsunami direction, and coastal proximity. As a novel component of this research, Analytic Hierarchy Proses (AHP) has been used to construct a weighting scheme for the geospatial variables.

This research also aimed to create Vulnerability Index (VI) map, for the buildings in four areas of the Banda Aceh city, and the variables in this assessment adopted from the Papathoma Vulnerability tsunami Assessment (PVTA) scheme, consisting of story building, material, foundation, movable object, ground floor plan, shape and orientation, and preservation condition. All of the assessments have incorporated a MCE method, and integrated with the GIS to create a reliable and comprehensive vulnerability map of the Banda Aceh city area.

An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used within MCE to create relative weighted output for all variables, and a series of ratio matrix judgments based on pair-wise comparisons to calculate weights of each variable within the hierarchy. In order to avoid subjectivity in judgment scoring, eleven experts were consulted for their independent assessments of the comparison of variables.

The main outcomes of the study are in the form of GIS based Tsunami Vulnerability Index maps which differentiate between the various degrees of vulnerability based on tsunami height and inundation, the various levels of impact severity towards existing building structures, and topography. Most buildings and environments within Banda Aceh city have been determined to be highly vulnerable if a tsunami reaches a height more than three meters at the point of impact. Hence, it can be concluded that buildings, which have been developed through the period of reconstruction and rehabilitation since the disaster of 2004, are highly vulnerable to tsunami.

Advantages for produce these maps can be utilized by planners for the establishment of a zoning scheme for any potential coastline development, taking into account both regional and structural sensitivities to tsunami. As a result, a number of recommendations for future development in high-risk areas have also been proposed to the Aceh government and may be used as a tool for the evaluation of current relief efforts, as well as for the development of more precise building regulations within these areas.

並列關鍵字

Natural Disaster ； Vulnerability Assessment ； Tsunami Hazard ； GIS ； Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis

參考文獻

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