由於地震發生所具有突發性、高度不確定性及瞬間摧毀之特性,相較於其 它天然災害具有更高之威脅性,故本研究目的擬結合定量風險分析技術(事件 樹與故障樹)進行水管橋之耐震安全評估,以提升管理之有效性及可靠性。 本研究以水管橋於震後是否喪失持續輸水功能為主要考量,透過事件樹之 邏輯推演,列出地震後對水管橋所造成影響之可能事件,再以故障樹之邏輯演 繹,由事件結果反推所有可能事件失敗之因素,並藉由失敗機率之推算,分析 重要之風險因子。而本研究中於定量風險分析之參數量化方法,主要分為二部 分:(1)橋梁結構之損壞機率利用橋梁易損性分析進行探討、(2)鋼材損壞機率以 鋼材可靠度進行分析。本研究以新店水管橋為例進行個案分析,所得到之定量 風險分析結果可提供相關單位作為其他關鍵性基礎設施之參考。
Earthquake is characterized by unpredictable and destructive, compared to other natural disasters. In order to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of seismic management measures, this study combined quantitative risk analysis techniques (event tree analysis and fault tree analysis) to carry out water pipe bridge seismic safety assessment. Based on the chief consideration that to maintenance water supply in the aftermath of the earthquake, this paper deduced the possible failure events (damage situation) of the water pipe bridge caused by the earthquake through the event tree analysis, and analyzed possible failure elements of each failure event through the fault tree analysis. Then, the important risk factors could be prioritized by the results of quantitative analysis. In this study, the probability of each failure element mainly was analyzed by the following two ways: (1) The probability of the failure element related to structural damage was analyzed through the vulnerability of the bridge. (2) The probability of the failure element related to material damage was analyzed through the reliability of the material. At last, this paper carried on the case study of Sindian water pipe bridge as reference.