結合地震災損率估計與空間不確定性分析於自來水管網模擬之研究

台灣在高度的自來水接管普及率之下，自來水管網系統已經和民眾的生活息息相關，尤其對於人口密集的都市地區，維持自來水管網系統的正常運作是十分重要的工作。自來水管網系統除了提供民眾日常用水及工業用水之外，更在災害發生時扮演提供緊急用水的重要角色，因此在遭受重大的天然災害時，自來水管網系統的效能，對於供水系統及救災系統的運作有決定性的影響。因此本研究擬發展一套模擬方法，能結合EPANET物理模式精準計算管線中水理參數的優點，且又能簡單將地震發生時的強度模擬進入物理模式中，其計算結果便代表發生地震時所顯現的管網水理情況。本研究利用災損點代表不同強度地震的破壞狀況，將之隨機分佈在管網系統中進行模擬，便可得知地震後管網的水理狀況，並用蒙地卡羅模擬法重複模擬過程，在災損點空間不確定性的基礎下，分析地震後各地區受影響的機率，提供防救災的策略擬定參考，達到預防災害的目的

關鍵字

大地應變； EPANET ；維生線；管線災損模式；地震災損模擬

並列摘要

The pipeline network is very important for daily life in Taiwan. It must be kept well maintenance, especially to the city. It offers basic need like water for urban area, but it would be greatly damaged by earthquake. And more important, it offers water for emergency use in disaster. If the water pipeline network is damaged seriously, the fire cause of earthquake would be spread extensively. In order to realize the performance of pipeline networks after earthquake, this study integrated damage ratio assessment and spatial uncertainty analysis for water pipeline networks. Strain gage Rosettes method is applied to calculate Permanent Ground Deformation (PGD) for damage ratio estimation of water pipeline network. Therefore, damaged points can be estimated through the damage ratio correspond to different earthquake intensity. Damaged points are distributed in water pipeline network randomly, and loss of water by different earthquake intensity can be assessed. The simulation helps us to analyze the water supply capability. Base on spatial uncertainty analysis of random distribution damaged points. The reliability of water supply is estimated.

並列關鍵字

Ground strain ； EPANET ； Water pipeline

參考文獻

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