- 學位論文
台灣地區實施國民年金保險可行性之研究
On the Practicability of the Citizen Annuity Insurance System in Taiwan
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摘要
台灣地區實施國民年金保險可行性之研究 學 生：巴台坤 指導教授：尤克強博士 元智大學管理研究所 摘 要 國民年金保險制度攸關國內目前65歲以上，未支領老人福利津貼、公勞保及其他社會保險給付的40餘萬老年人口，實為一項民生重大法案。實施國民年金保險制度，涉及經營技術、經濟及財務等不同面向，涵蓋層面甚廣。本研究針對行政院經濟建設委員會所規劃之國民年金保險制度草案，探究其經營技術，並建構國民年金保險財務分析模型，針對年金財務作一模擬分析，以探討其可行性。 本研究之結論有以下兩方面： 一、在國民年金制度規劃以及經營技術方面： 國民年金保險實施之可行性將視國民之意願以及是否擁有健全之財源為關鍵因素。國民之意願取決於保險費是否加重，以及國民年金保險和原先擁有的職域保險間如何整合、銜接。依目前經建會的規劃為「業務分立、內涵整合」方式，是否能順利將各保險體系整合在一起，將是實施國民年金保險的關鍵因素。 二、在國民年金財務方面： 在不考慮世代交替的情形下，由保戶自行繳納保費以支付屆齡老年之給付，若每月獲得年金給付＄7,500，則25歲之被保險人需月繳保費＄2,131，直至65歲。此金額和經建會所預估之每月＄750差距甚大。 但若以整個保險體系考量，意即加入人口因素的考量，會產生世代互助的效果。依財務自主的觀點，國民年金保險保費之收入應等於保險金之支出，亦即淨現金流量為零。在此情境下所模擬求算之年金保費在國民年金保險制度實施初期，保戶所需繳交之保費均較經建會規劃為低，但會逐年攀升。此外，不同財務處理期間，對保費影響不大，因此本研究認為所需之平準保費受到人口變數影響應大於財務處理期間之影響，故年金保費是否能長期維持國人可以接受的水準，且又可以保持年金財務獨立之要求，不會發生破產情形，仍有待時間之驗證。
並列摘要
On the Practicability of the Citizen Annuity Insurance System in Taiwan Student：Tai-kuen Pa Advisor：Dr. Keh-Chiang Yu Graduate School of Management Yuan-Ze University ABSTRACT The establishment of citizen annuity insurance system is a very crucial public issue. It is designed to help around 400,000 citizens in Taiwan who are in the age of over 65 without benefiting from public/private insurance, or any other social welfare. As the issue involves some aspects of governmental administration so that there have been many modifications for the citizen annuity system which is referred to those of other countries. Some financial problems remain to be solved. Factors influencing the system include system planning and financial administration. By referring to citizen annuity insurance system designed by Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), this study focuses on exploring the technique of operation and the financial model. Based on the simulation , this study finds that: l. The willingness of citizen and a sound finance basis are two key factors for the implementation of citizen annuity insurance system . The former factor depends on the level of insurance fee and the integration of this new system with the existing insurance programs. 2. If the generations overlapping is not taken into account, the insurance policy holders will be charged NT$2,131 per month from the age of 25 through 65, and then they can get back the claim indemnity of NT$7,500 per month after 65. The monthly payment of NT$2,131 apparently is much higher than the NT$ 750 per month estimated by CEPD. On the contrary, if the generations overlapping is considered, the premium paid by policy holders must be exactly equal to the claim indemnity. That is, net present value of all cash flows occurred in the insurance system must be zero. The premium would be less than that estimateded by CEPD in the initial stage then grow up gradually. Furthermore, The size of population instead of time horizon will affect the level of premium. Whether the premium can be accepted by all the citizens and the insurance system can be kept solvent in long term would still remain to be investigated .
參考文獻
1996，「婦女勞動參與對生育率的影響」，台灣社會學刊，19期：35-56，台北
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