摘要
造成軟體專案管理困難的主要原因為軟體發展過程中存在許多不確定性因素（uncertainty），影響軟體生產力及品質表現。本論文利用貝氏信心網路（Bayesian Belie Network，BBN）來發展軟體專案風險的管理（Risk Management）技術。我們提出一套有系統的程序，透過貝氏網路處理不確定性的技術，建立風險歷程檔案（Risk Profile），在整個專案計畫進行過程中，持續地監控（Continuously Monitoring）專案成敗的機率，並判斷目前軟體專案的狀況是否潛藏可能產生重大的風險（risk identification）。並透過此程序，可以更進一步的發現造成此風險的原因（risk detection），並將此資訊提供給專案管理人員，管理人員可以透過此資訊、根據本身經驗與實際限制，採取有效的策略，以降低專案失敗風險所帶來的威脅。 本論文應用BBN提出一套軟體專案風險管理的程序演算法，並以靜態實際案例的分析及動態的模擬測試，以評估本方法的有效性。我們的分析及測試的結果均證明我們方法有效地輔助管理人員掌握與控制不確定因素，以於風險管理，此外，貝氏網路也提供讓軟體專案風險管理與決策過程證據更透明化。
並列摘要
The main reason causing difficulties in software project development is uncertainties. Such uncertainties might affect the quality of software product and effectiveness of the software process. We proposed a project risk management scheme based on Bayesian Belief Network This systematic method includes risk assessment, continuous risk monitoring using profiles, risk analysis and risk treatment. Our method can identify potential risks and trace them back to possible causes so as to assist the manager to manage software project risks. This thesis developed a risk management algorithm based on BBN; it also employed case studies and simulation tests to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Results of our analysis and simulation show that the method can effectively assist the manager to handle uncertainties. Besides, BBN provides visibility and repeatability of the decision making process in the risk management. Thus, this method lowers the probabilities of project risks and enhances project success .
參考文獻
[1] Barbara Kitchenham and Stephen Linkman,”Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk,” IEEE Software,1997, pp. 69-74.
[2] B.W. Boehm, ”Software risk management: principles and practices,”
[3] Capers Jones , ”Software benchmarking,” Software Productivity Research
[4] Chi Y. Lin, ”Software —Engineering Process Simulation Model (SEPS),” System Software ,1997,pp.263-277,.
[5] Dale Walter Karolak, Software Engineering Risk Management, IEEE Computer Society Press, 1996
延伸閱讀
- 張志楷（2012）。以貝氏網路建構六標準差導入風險評估模式〔碩士論文，國立虎尾科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6827/NFU.2012.00007
- HAYATI, D. W. (2015). 以貝式信念網路為基礎之工作危害分析與風險評估方法 [master's thesis, National Central University]. Airiti Library. https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0031-0412201512084149
- 朱志凱（2009）。以貝氏模式建構之資訊安全風險因子評估指標〔碩士論文，元智大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0009-2107200916034700
- Chen, C. H. (2010). Design and Implementation of the risk management task assignment system [master's thesis, Chung Yuan Christian University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2010.00023
- 張聿昀（2005）。Implementation Case study of Project Risk Management IT System〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00505