地理資訊系統在空氣品質預測模型建構上之應用研究

Study on the application of a GIS developed for Air quality predictive models

曾淑惠(Shu-Hui Tseng)

指導教授 ： 林育才

元智大學/工程學院/機械工程學系/碩士(2000年)

摘要

本研究利用桃園縣內現有十處自動空氣品質監測資料（六處屬環保署管轄，四處屬縣環保局管轄），配合地面氣象、高空氣象資料，以大氣擴散模擬模式ISCST( Industrial Source Complex Short Term model)及門檻式時空數列分析預測模式模型TSTARMA（Threshold Spatial Time Series Model）來探討目前桃園縣主要固定污染源前102大，共509支煙囪對空氣品質的貢獻量及十處空氣品質監測站間相互關聯性，再結合以地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System，簡稱GIS）提供強大的資料整合能力，運用高精確度之電子數位地圖、輔以地形、地物之屬性資料，將文字、數據以一種圖形化、交談式、動態性的方式，展示在視窗環境中，利用較容易被接受、較具親和力、較美觀的圖形查詢介面，達到精確、快速、節省人力以及資源共享之目的，亦可讓使用者直接在電子地圖上做立即查詢之動作，藉以描繪出空氣品質的影響範圍，幫助管理者清楚的掌握各地的空氣品質狀況，適時地給予民眾預警訊息，如此對未來空氣品質管制方案的擬定、政策上的推行也能有所依據。
本研究利用GIS所呈現之固定源排放擴散地面濃度顯示桃園地區以龜山鄉之SO2濃度為最高，曝露人口約為82652人，蘆竹鄉、桃園市次之，曝露人口約為97640人；NOX濃度最高者為新屋鄉，曝露人口約為217899人，桃園市次之，曝露人口約為287899人；另PM10之濃度則以新屋鄉、龜山鄉兩鄉分佈為最高，曝露人口約為135755人，蘆竹鄉、觀音鄉、桃園市三者次之，曝露人口約為272072人。

關鍵字

地理資訊系統 ； 大氣擴散模式 ； 時空數列分析 ； 空氣品質

並列摘要

This thesis employs the auto air quality monitor information acquired from the ten present monitorial spots in Taoyuan Hsien (six of them belong to the Department of Environment Protection, the other four, Taoyuan Hsien’s Bureau of Environment Protection), along with the ground weather, high air weather information and with ISCST and TSTARMA to explore Taoyuan Hsien’s top 102 major fixed pollution resources’ (a total of 509 chimneys) contribution to the quantity of air quality and to get straight the interactions between the ten air quality monitor spots. With the help of GIS’s powerful ability in integrating information plus high precision digital map and related geographic features, we can transform in a picturesque, conversational, dynamic way, the written words and facts and show them in the window. To be precise, quick, economical and sharing resources, we can provide the users a prompt inquiry on the electronic map featuring out the air quality of the affected areas, therefore, helping the management clearly control the air quality of every area and giving the public precautionary warning. In this way, in the future, projects and policy on air pollution control will have a firm base.
The ground density of the fixed released pollution shown through GIS indicates that Kueshan County stands out number one in SOx density, covering a population of 82652. Next stand the Luchu County and Taoyuan City, 97640, As for NOx Shinwu leads others, covering a population about 217899, Taoyuan City next, 287899. In additon, Shinwu County and Kueshan County have the highest density in PM10, covering 135735; Luchu County, Kuanin County and Taoyuan City rank second, exposure population about 272072.

並列關鍵字

GIS ； ISCST ； TSTARMA ； air quality