台灣地區退休適足性之探討

台灣自1993年已邁入高齡化的社會，退休金議題也因此越來越受到重視，其中，"退休適足性"更是被關注的焦點。"退休適足性"議題的重要性，主要來自於其與老年經濟生活密切相關；同樣地，也來自於全球化、工業化所產生的家庭結構及照護模式的改變所帶來對"退休適足性"議題的探討。因應上述的需求，自然就形成建立合理退休制度的呼聲，因此也帶動了退休理財規劃的重要性。究竟該準備多少退休金，才足以應付長時間的退休生活，相信已成為各界所欲了解的問題。本文的目的，即是希望透過英、美、日各國退休金制度之比較及退休適足性之觀察，以得到對退休制度特性及所得替代率的認識，再以之探討台灣地區在現行退休金制度下，針對國人退休適足性之議題提出預測與建議。為逐步清楚地認識整個問題，第一章首先檢視台灣目前及未來的人口結構演變趨勢以及探討目前老年經濟收入來源之情形，以確定退休照護不足的強度，並引申至個人退休金準備的必要性。第二章對目前已發表，探討英、美、日三國退休金制度及所得替代率之狀況以及探討我國退休金制度之沿革的文獻，進行回顧與檢討。接著便是本文的主體部份，第三章從定義退休適足性之意涵到如何估算適足的退休生活需求，提供了完整的退休金規劃流程。第四章建立最有效率的投資組合，更進一步提供退休前與退休期間之投資理財建議。第五章台灣地區退休適足性之探討，主要是根據行政院主計處2002年家庭收支調查資料，進行SAS迴歸分析，得到影響個人或家庭消費支出之變動因素以及變動因素間之相關性，再以行政院主計處2003年家庭收支調查結果進行驗證，以評估SAS迴歸分析之準確性。希望藉由SAS模型來推算出，在不同變動因素之情況下，個人或家庭之年度消費支出，並進一步估算其退休生活需求，同時歸納整理出台灣地區退休適足性之客觀衡量標準，以供個人或家庭做為退休規劃時之參考依據。最後，則整合本文提出結論與檢討。

關鍵字

退休適足性

並列摘要

Taiwan has become an aging society since 1993. Since then, the issues regarding pensions for retirement have become red-hot topics, in particular “Retirement Adequacy,” primarily because this issue is closely related to the financial lifestyle of the elderly. Meanwhile, the dynamic changes in family structures and in the healthcare for the elderly have deepened the importance of “Retirement Adequacy”. In line with the aforementioned needs, the voices for setting up a rational retirement system are increasingly heard. In turn, the issue to manage the savings for retirement becomes increasingly important. How much of an amount of retirement pension is considered adequate to meet prolonged retirement needs? The answer to this question is of interest to people in all walks of life. This thesis is intended to acquire sound awareness of the characteristics of the retirement system and the replacement rates by comparing the pension systems prevailing in the UK, United States and the Japan. Further, we will offer a forecast for the expected expenses after retirement for various households, where the expected expenses are consistent with the idea of consumption smoothing for desired lifestyles. In the First Chapter, the Thesis looks into the trends of transformation in the population structure in Taiwan and probes into the financial sources of revenues for the elderly. The findings will ascertain the strength of the retirement systems. In turn, it will extend to the indispensability of the personal retirement savings. In the Second Chapter, the Thesis will look into the pension systems and retirement adequacy status of the leading countries in the world (the UK, United States and the Japan). Meanwhile, the Chapter will look into the transformation of the pension systems in Taiwan. In the Third Chapter, the principal body of the Thesis, it defines the retirement adequacy and looks into the needs for retirement, offering comprehensive pension planning procedures. In the Fourth Chapter, it sets up the efficient investment portfolio and further provides feasible plans regarding the pre-retirement and post-retirement periods in the financial management. In the Fifth Chapter, it probes into the retirement adequacy in Taiwan, mainly based on the 2002 household survey data conducted by the Directorate-General of the Budget, Account & Statistics. Regression analyses are applied in the Thesis to obtain the interrelationship between the household consumption expenditure and the household demographic as well as financial factors. The prediction equations obtained in the regression analyses are further verified by using 2003 data from the same dataset to make sure whether the results obtained through the SAS regression analyses are good enough. It is hoped that through formal modeling, we can predict the consumption expenditures of individual or household in a scientific way, and then the needs for the retirement life can be further calculated. The last part of the Thesis integrates the entire thesis into conclusions and recommandations.

並列關鍵字

Retirement Adequacy

參考文獻

(20) Brinson, Gary P., Hood, L. Randolph, Beebower, Gilbert L. 1986. “Determinants of Prtfolio Performance.” Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 42, no. 4: p. 39-44.

（1）行政院主計處(2003) http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ <台灣地區家庭收支調查>