台灣農會財務預警系統之實證分析

A study on Financial Warning Systems for the Credit Department of the Farmers’ Association of Taiwan

簡顯瓔(Shean-Ing Jean)

指導教授 ： 夏侯欣榮

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

本論文擬探討台灣農會信用部之財務預警指標及預警模型，並實證預警模型之正確率，進一步探討農業金融法施行後之農會信用部經營績效。研究主題包含在問題接管農會與健全農會之差異、財務比率變數之相關分析、財務顯著預警因子及預警因子法制化後之農業金融法施行績效。
　　預警模型之研究樣本期間為1998年至2000年，共3年之財務報表資料。樣本名單為2001年、2002年被銀行接管之農會29家及配對之健全農會。其實證結果（1）健全農會與問題農會財務比率成對差異分析及Logistic迴歸，研究發現變數之顯著性主要依次為逾期放款率、存放比率，其兩者為放款量及質的具體呈現。（2）利用Logit模型以2000、2001年（農會信用部被銀行接管前）進行發生問題機率值之推估，以Logit模型實證得到財務比率參數式，再據以求出發生問題之機率值，實證結果本研究之預警參數式具預測能力。（3）於預警模型之推估過程中機率值未達50%之問題農會，實證危險機率值迅速上升達接管之機率值，其主要原因為淨值比率變化。（4）本研究預警模型實證結果之財務顯著預警因子－逾放比率、存放比率、淨值比率皆於2004年公佈施行之「農業金融法」之法條內加以強制規定。
　　進一步研究「農業金融法」施行績效，研究樣本為2001年至2006年之267家農會，分由健全農會、接管農會（2001、2002年未被銀行接管農會、被銀行接管之農會）兩部份進行探討，實證結果健全農會之「放款與淨值比」、「放款量」、「淨值」呈現顯著差異，可說明政府積極對農會放款嚴格監控，績效有所提昇。另對於部分被接管之問題農會約於2007年左右恢復信用部經營，惟尚屬經營初期，財務差異並不明顯。

關鍵字

財務預警系統 ； 農業金融法 ； 農會信用部 ； 績效評估

並列摘要

This thesis sets to explore the financial warning benchmarks and warning models of the Credit Department of the Farmers’ Association of Taiwan, and to confirm the accuracy of the warning model. This will deepen our analysis on the effects and performance of the Farmers’ Association Credit Department resulting from the implementation of the Agricultural Financial Law. Our main research concentrations include the differences between problematic farmers’ associations and smooth running associations, analysis on variations in financial ratios and the performance of Agricultural Financial Law after the implementation of major financial warning markers and its laws.
　　The Farmers’ Association Financial Early Warning Model and its statistical numbers used were the financial records and reports of the 3 years from 1998-2000. The list includes the 29 Farmers’ Associations whose credit departments have been taken over by banks during 2001 and 2002 and their corresponding experimental twin counterparts who serve as statistical references. We have therefore reached the following empirical conclusions（1）After a logistical financial comparison between healthy stable Associations and problematic Associations, the research shows that the number of substantial and quantifiable variations found are in the following order of occurrence in terms of frequency: non-performing loans, loan to deposit ratios.（2）Using the Logit model and the statistical records of problems occurring during 2001 and 2002 before Associations were taken over by banks, we come to the financial ratio equation and thus calculate the probability of problems occurring and therefore confirm the ability to accurately predict the possibility of operational problems through data analysis.（3）As to the problematic Associations that experienced a less than 50% probability fault as predicted by the warning model, the data demonstrates that the probability of errors increases substantially to the average of those being taken over, mainly due to the changes of net worth ratio.（4）All the relevant financial data and ratios in this warning model study: non-performing loan ratio, loan to deposit ratio, and net worth ratio are all strictly regulated and supervised under the Agricultural Financial Law implemented in 2004.
　　A further analysis of Agricultural Financial Law’s implementation effects include the statistical data from 267 Farmer’s Associations from 2001-2006. They are divided into healthy Associations and Associations whose operations have been taken over by banks and we separately analyze them accordingly. The results indicate that the loan and net worth ratio of a healthy Association has marked differences and points to the fact that the government strictly controls and supervises the loaning of Farmer’s Associations. On another hand, in regards to other problematic Associations whose operations were taken over, their Credit Department was reinstated in 2007 and as they are still in their early periods of business, their financial differences are not very great so far.

並列關鍵字

financial warning systems ； the Agricultural Financial Law ； the Credit Department of the Farmers’ Association ； implementation effect

參考文獻

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