以情境分析法分析台資石化業者在中國投資設廠時的二氧化碳交易 策略選擇

The CO2 Trading Strategy of Petrochemical Firms in China -A Scenario Analysis

陳彗菁(Hui-Ching Chen)

指導教授 ： 謝志宏

元智大學/管理學院/經營管理碩士班(企業管理與服務科學學程)/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究旨在運用情境分析法及模糊德爾菲法探討台資石化業者在中國投資設廠時對降低二氧化碳排放的策略考量，並依未來五年與十五年的時間軸，分析廠商受到全球及中國大環境變動影響而有之各種情境及對應之降低二氧化碳排放的策略。透過深度訪談產、官、學等十一位業界資深專家並施予三回德爾菲法問卷調查後發現，影響廠商做決策的因素包括了中國政府對二氧化碳限額與交易的態度、中國政治體制與穩定度及節能減碳科技的技術成熟度等，依此發展出2015年兩個不確定軸及三種策略情境，以及2025年四個不確定軸及七種情境策略。綜合以上情境之後發現，廠商們在做決策時，成本考量為最大主因，綠色能源技術則被少數廠商視為可投資之項目，而在面臨政府規範限制時，購買碳排放權是廠商們最後才會考慮的策略。

關鍵字

二氧化碳交易 ； 情境分析法 ； 模糊德爾菲法

並列摘要

The purpose of this research is to study the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction strategies alternatives adopted by the Taiwanese petrochemical firms investing in China, how these firms developed their CO2 reduction strategies under the impact of changing environment of the world and China for the coming period of five years and fifteen years. This research uses in-depth interviews and three rounds of Fuzzy Delphi questionnaires with eleven experts from the industry, government departments and science institutes; and has successfully underpinned some key factors that influence the strategies decision making, including the Chinese government’s attitude and practice towards CO2 reduction and trading, the Chinese political system, and maturity of related technologies. In addition, this research develops a two-axis and three strategies scenarios for 2015; and a four-axis and seven strategies scenarios for 2025. The results of these scenarios show that main factor that affects the decision making is cost, followed by green energy technology which is considered as investment project for few companies. Government regulations limit, purchasing carbon credit is the last strategies that will be considered by the firms.

並列關鍵字

CO2 reduction strategies ； Scenario analysis ； Fuzzy Delphi

參考文獻

71. 行政院環保署，1998，溫室氣體減量之經濟影響評估研討會論文集。

74. 余序江, 許志義, 陳澤義，1998，科技管理導論：科技預測與規劃，五南圖書。

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