由理論及實驗檢視軟體可靠度預測技術的有效性

A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Validity of the Current Software Reliability Prediction Techniques

蔡秉均(Ping-Chun Tsai)

指導教授 ： 范金鳳

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊工程學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

可靠度是一個很重要的品質指標，它可以用來確定產品是否能發揮其預期的功效。然而，軟體可靠度的觀念，卻有許多質疑的聲音。軟體可靠度預測技術自1970年代提出以來，已經發展了將近40年的時間，但至今仍沒有任何一種軟體可靠度預測模型能為學術界或工業界所共同接受。在我們的研究中，我們想要盡可能的，化解大家對軟體可靠度的懷疑，像是軟體可靠度預測值為什麼在有些情況下會出現「不準確」之類的問題。

我們依照「故障物理學」的觀念，提出了一個含有七層架構的可靠度預測模型，並且使用它來對兩個案例進行實驗，以找出並探討在現行的軟體可靠度預測方法下，有時候之所以會讓人感到「不準確」的原因。並定義出在何種情況下，軟體可靠度預測值會是無效的；以及在哪些情況下，軟體可靠度預測會是有效的。

關鍵字

軟體可靠度 ； 程式行為模型 ； 故障物理學 ； 軟體故障行為

並列摘要

Reliability is an important quality indicator. It can be used to confirm whether a product could perform its expected function. Howerver, there are many doubts about the concept of software reliablilty. Software reliability predition techniques had developed for nearly 40 years since the 1970's. But nowadays, few software reliability prediction models can be widely accepted by academia and industry. Therefore, in our study, we aimed to resolve the doubts on software reliability, and identify the reasons why software reliability predictive value could be "inaccurate" at some conditions.

According to the concept of "failure physics", we proposed a 7-layers reliability prediction model. To investigate why software reliability could sometimes be "inaccurate" in the current methods of software reliability prediction, we applied this model to two cases for experiment. Afterwards, we summarized the results of the experiment, then defined the condition in which the software reliability prediction value would be invalid, and the condition in which the software reliability prediction value would be valid.

並列關鍵字

Software Reliability ； Program Behavior Model ； Failure Physics ； Software Failure Behavior

參考文獻

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