歐洲主權債務危機-以希臘為例

European Debt Crisis- The example of Greece

楊輝生(Hui-Sheng Yang)

指導教授 ： 丘邦翰

元智大學/管理學院/管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

歐洲主權債務危機-以希臘為例

學生：楊輝生 指導教授：丘邦翰

元 智 大 學 管 理 碩 士 在 職 專 班

摘 要

正當金融危機於2008年如火如荼的展開後，美國五大投資銀行的貝爾斯登因無法承受金融海嘯的衝擊，為避免破產被迫與摩根大通銀行合併，雷曼兄弟公司向法院申請破產保護，美林銀行被美國銀行收購，高盛與摩根士丹利則接受美國政府的紓困。然而沒有多久，包括美國，歐洲，亞洲等各國政府，被迫提供一系列刺激方案，除為市場注入流動性外並希望能振興疲弱的經濟，以避免經濟進一步惡化和衰退的發生。
自金融危機的震央從美國引爆後，隨即蔓延到其他國家，特別是那些高槓桿赤字預算的國家儼然成為一個潛在的問題。在2009年，就在愛爾蘭經濟首先崩潰不久，投資者就開始懷疑希臘償還貸款的能力，隨即蔓延到意大利，葡萄牙和西班牙即所謂的歐豬五國(PIIGS)。
全球對於主權債務的研究已由來已久，但多以新興市場國家為主，至於歐元區部分則尚無先例。本研究的目的是嚐試以質性研究分析法中之文獻分析法，來解釋究竟是什麼原因導致2009年歐洲主權債務危機，並進一步造成歐洲經濟嚴峻的形勢。我們選擇以希臘作為研究對象，並運用債務佔GDP的比例(Debt-to-GDP ratio)和信用違約交換（CDS）等二項工具，以最簡單與極具效率的方式來探尋引發歐洲債務危機的本源。最後，基於上述研究和假設，我們得出幾項結論與建議，而這些結論和建議，可提供作為希臘主權債務危機可能解決方案的思考方向。

關鍵詞： 2008年金融危機、歐豬五國、主權債務、負債佔GDP比重、信用違約交換

關鍵字

2008年金融危機 ； 歐豬五國 ； 主權債務 ； 負債佔GDP比重 ； 信用違約交換

並列摘要

Abstract
European Debt Crisis
- The Example of Greece

Student：Hui-Sheng Yang Advisors：Dr. Bang-Han Chiu

Submitted to Executive Master of Business Administration Program
College of Management,
Yuan Ze University

In the peak of financial crisis 2008, the top five American investment banks, Bear Stearns collapsed and was forced into a merged with JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers filed bankruptcy protection, Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America, and the rest were bailout by US government. Soon, the governments included US, Europe, Asia were forced to provide stimulus packages to pump in liquidity to market and stirring up the world economic in order to avoid further Deterioration and recession.
After financial crisis unfolded from the ground-zero of the USA then spread out to the other countries, especially high leverage with deficit budget countries became a potential problem. In 2009, Ireland collapsed first and then investors are beginning to question Greek repayment loan ability, and soon spread to Italy, Portugal and Spain so-called European PIIGS.
Sovereign debt are studied for a time but usually been focused on emerging countries, and no precedent for Euro zone. The purpose of this paper is trying to use Literature analysis to explain what caused the European sovereign crisis of 2009 and led it to a severe situation. We chose Greece as a research target, and made a study with Debt-to-GDP ratio and Credit Default Swap (CDS), the easiest and efficiency way to find the smoking gun of European debt crisis. At the end of paper, there are a few conclusions and suggestions based on above research and assumptions, these conclusions and suggestions also support the possibly solutions for the Greek sovereign debt crisis.
Keywords：Financial crisis 2008, European PIIGS, Sovereign debt, Debt-to-GDP, Credit Default Swap

並列關鍵字

Financial crisis 2008 ； European PIIGS ； Sovereign debt ； Debt-to-GDP ； Credit Default Swap

參考文獻

37. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 14 (2008) “Currency Devaluation and Output Growth: An Empirical Evidence from Oecd Countries”

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4. Ammer, John, and Fang Cai. (2007), “Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December.”

6. Arrigo Sadun.(2011), “The Impact of the Global Crisis on South-Eastern Europe.” IMF Working Paper.