失業問題不僅僅是個統計數字,失業現象可能引發犯罪率提高或產生許多社會問題。我國勞動力人口以25-44歲青壯年期人口所占比率最高,顯示青壯年期人口為台灣經濟的主要推手,更是許多家庭的經濟與精神支柱。我國全民健保實施迄今已逾17個年頭,全民健保承保加退保資料庫中隱含著2,300餘萬人工作異動軌跡。然而迄今尚無利用原始健保承保資料進行失業、就業及景氣指標之研究。 本研究以2008年1月至2012年12月全國性健保承保計費資料做為研究資料來源,以25-44歲青壯年期受雇勞工為研究對象,以轉換工作前後的時間差作為本研究之待業週數。研究第一部分以待業週數與經濟景氣指數進行相關性分析,探究健保資料與經濟景氣之關聯性。研究第二部分以時間、年齡、性別及地區作為自變數,將待業週數作為依變數進行迴歸分析,期盼找出健保承保資料對於社經科學領域之價值與地位。研究發現,健保資料之待業週數與當期失業率呈現顯著正相關性,與當期股價指數呈現顯著負相關。2008年較2009年及2010年呈現顯著相關性。在待業週數方面,整體而言,男性的待業週數大於女性,但會受到地區與年齡的影響;年齡增加及待業週數增加則其跨區工作比率亦下降,另地區區域性在待業週數上形成顯著差異性。 本研究嘗試利用健保資料承保異動資料之特性探討青壯年期失業就業情形,有別於其他文獻以失業率資料分析,有別採問卷方式取得轉換工作間的待業週數。研究發現在不同的資料來源下,研究結果呈現與國內相關文獻分析失業就業相似結果,且在資料取得上較省人力與時間成本,顯示健保承保資料推估社經變數研究結果之可行性。
Instead of just a statistic, “unemployment” also induces crime and social problems. In Taiwan, people aged from 25 to 44 occupies the largest part of working population as well as being the main force of the country’s economy, it would be a great loss to the society if they get unemployed. After being carried out for over 17 years, National Health Insurance has established a database of complete enrollment data of citizens such as job changes, yet there is no single study of unemployment or regression takes such data as reference. This study takes National Health Insurance data from January 2008 to December 2012 as research resources, the employed labors aged form 25 to 44 as research targets, and the time difference of transferring jobs as unemployed duration. The first part of this study explores the correlation between National Health Insurance data and prosperity by relevant analysis. By defining time, age, gender and region as independent variables and unemployed duration as dependent variable, the second part tries to find the value of National Health Insurance data in social-economic field by regression analysis. It is found that the unemployed duration has significantly positive correlation with current unemployment rate, while having significantly negative correlation with current stock index, and the correlation shown in 2008 is more positive than in 2009 and 2010. As a whole, the unemployed duration of male is longer than of female, yet differed by age and region. Besides, older age and longer unemployed duration lead to lower cross-district employment rate, and region difference (different cities and counties) also affects. By getting similar conclusion, National Health Insurance database saves manpower and time comparing to traditional means such as unemployment rate analysis and questionnaire, which proves the possibility to speculate social-economic variables by using National Health Insurance data.