運用蒙地卡羅模擬法於量化專案引發學生症候群之影響與衝擊

A Research on Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Study the Impacts and Influences of Student Syndrome during Project Delivery

林利澄(Li-Cheng Lin)

指導教授 ： 任恒毅

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2013.00167

摘要

學生症候群為高德拉特博士所提出一種影響專案完成時間的現象，其症狀指作業執行者在執行專案作業時習慣於期限前才肯積極努力地執行作業以達成目標，常會造成作業直至期限前才被完成，進而影響後續作業的執行時間；然，以往文獻少有對此現象進行更進一步之探討，故本研究運用蒙地卡羅模擬法量化學生症候群為專案所帶來的影響。本研究首先研究一般專案作業，將專案之作業時間範圍用機率分配描述，並模擬專案作業在串流、分流與匯流等型態時，引發學生症狀的情形。模擬結果顯示學生症候群確實會造成專案相當程度之衝擊，倘能避免學生症候群發生，也就是盡量能在專案作業的早期即全力投入，則有益於提高專案如期完工機率。本研究並以某污水下水道專案為例，模擬分析發現，倘專案兩作業時間相當時，任一作業發生學生症候群對結果都會對專案時程造成嚴重影響；若兩作業時間差異懸殊時，則由作業時間較長一方的行為模式支配其結果。

關鍵字

時程管理 ； 學生症候群 ； 蒙地卡羅模擬

並列摘要

Student syndrome, first proposed by Goldratt, is a common phenomenon during project delivery in that the project performers work the most when the scheduled due date is approaching. This syndrome risks the start-delay of ensuing activities, and can endanger the delay of overall project delivery. Although this syndrome is commonly acknowledged among project management discipline; however, very few studies provided quantitative measure of the impact and influence of it. This study uses Monte Carlo Simulation in order to quantify the impact and influence of student syndrome. The activity time duration is formulated as a probability distribution function. The research tests typical project network structures such as serial-, merging- and diverging- type activities and their simulation results showed that student syndrome can have various degrees of impacts on project delivery schedule. It is found that if activity owner can put more effort in the earlier phase when performing the activity, the probability of project completion can increase. A practical case of underground sewage project was studied. The simulation results also showed the consistency with real project delivery results. That is, if the activity durations of adjacent activities are close, the impact on project schedule due to student syndrome is equally significant. If some activities have much longer durations, their behaviors dominate the project performing results.

並列關鍵字

Student Syndrome ； Monte Carlo Simulation ； Schedule Management

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