結合網路搜尋熱門度與經濟指標建立臺灣失業率預測機制

A Keyword Frequency Search and Economic Indicators Combination For Unemployment Rate Prediction Model in Taiwan

薛興順(Hsing-Shun Hsueh)

指導教授 ： 邱昭彰

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2013.00376

摘要

受全球金融環境影響，臺灣的失業率屢創新高。失業問題不僅對民眾身心造
成影響並影響家庭及國家經濟。是故預測失業率以擬定相關政策對各國均為重要
的議題，本研究除結合失業相關的關鍵詞在討論區中出現的頻率外，還包含從
Google Trends 網站擷取與失業此一關鍵字連動性高的關鍵字查詢數以及消費者
物價指數、國內生產毛額、經濟成長率等經濟指標作為輸入變數。目的在從網路
論壇的討論中，找出有助預測失業率的訊息。並透過預測誤差分析，找出影響預
測誤差因素。實驗結果證實，在結合關鍵詞出現在討論區的詞頻與經濟指標可以
有效對失業率進行預測。

關鍵字

文字探勘 ； 詞頻 ； 經濟指標 ； Google Trends

並列摘要

Affected by the global financial environment, Taiwan's unemployment rate hit
record highs. Unemployment is not only physical and psychological impact on the
population and affect families and the national economy. Thus, unemployment
forecasting to develop relevant policies is important issues for countries. In this study,
in addition to combining frequencies of unemployment related keywords appeared in
the forum, also contains unemployment related keywords query value extracted from
the Google Trends website as well as the Consumer Price Index, Nominal GDP,
Economic Growth Rate and other economic indicators as input variables. The purpose
this research is to find messages that help to predict the unemployment rate from
discussion forum on Internet and Google Trends website. Also through prediction
error analysis to identify factors that affecting the prediction error. Experimental
results show that, in combination with frequencies of unemployment related keywords
appeared in the forum and economic indicators can be effective on the prediction of
unemployment rate.

並列關鍵字

Text Mining ； Term Frequency ； Google Trends ； Economic indicators

參考文獻

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