財務分析師對公司宣告重整消息反應之實證研究

An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts’ Reacting to Restructurings

張淑盈(Shu-Ying Chang)

指導教授 ： 鍾彩焱

元智大學/管理學院/會計學系/碩士(2006年)

摘要

Gibbs(1993)、Daniels et al.(1995)當公司提出一重整計劃時，往往是希望藉由公司組織再造、裁員、公司資產的出售及處分，以達到改善營運困難之目的；Chaney et al.(1999)假如分析師能從財報上輕易地了解重整事件，則分析師的長期盈餘預測誤差會相對地較小；Mendenhall(1991)的實證結果指出，分析師的預測修正數與下期盈餘宣告日附近的異常報酬兩者間具有顯著的正向關係。因此綜合上述文獻可知：在資本市場中，財務分析師之盈餘預測在決定公司市場股票價值中扮演很重要的角色，因此當公司有重整活動發生時，公司的價值也將跟著受影響。而本研究主要是想了解，分析師在公司發生重整事件後1至3年，特殊項目之金額與分析師盈餘預測修正數、預測誤差之關聯性；以及分析師預測修正數與預測誤差之關聯性。

而本研究結果指出：(1)分析師對於重整金額較大的公司其盈餘預測行為愈樂觀，而且分析師長期盈餘預測樂觀的程度比短期盈餘樂觀的程度還來得高。(2)分析師短期盈餘預測的準確性比長期盈餘預測的準確性還來得高。

關鍵字

自發性重整 ； 分析師盈餘預測修正 ； 分析師預測誤差

並列摘要

Gibbs(1993)、Daniels et al.(1995) report that financial distressed companies often to bring up restructuring programs such as reengineering, assets disposal, or reduction of employment in order to improve their financial performance. Chaney et al.(1999) report that if restructuring charges make it easier to interpret the financial statements , then analysts’ forecast errors should be lower subsequent to the charge. Mendenhall (1991) documents a significant positive association between forecast revisions and the abnormal returns around subsequent earnings announcements. Built upon extant research, I investigate analysts forecast behavior in response to the announcements of corporate restructurings, including forecast revision and the degree of forecast errors.

The evidence indicates that (1) on average, analysts overestimate earnings to a greater extent subsequent to a large restructuring charges than small restructuring charges, and (2) The accuracy of short forecast horizons is higher than the that of long forecast horizons for restructuring forms versus non-restructuring firms.

並列關鍵字

Analysts’ Forecast Revision ； Voluntary Restructuring ； Analysts’ Forecast Error

參考文獻

Abarbanell, J. 1991. Do Analysts’ Earnings forecasts Incorporate Information in Prior Stock price Changes?. Journal of Accounting and Economics (June):p.147-165.

Bens Daniel A. 2002. The determinants of the amount of Information Disclosed about Corporate Restructurings. Journal of Accounting Research (March):p.1-20.

Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics (July):p.255-274.

Brown, L., P. Griffin, R. Hagerman, and M. Zmijewski. 1987 An evaluation of alternative proxies for market’s assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics (July):p.159-193.

Chaney Paul K. and Hogan Chris E. and Jeter Debra C. 1999. The effect of reporting restructuring charges on analysts’ forecast revisions and errors. Journal of Accounting and Economics (27):p.261-284.