台灣縣市永續性發展灰分析評估 －以台北市、台中市、高雄市、花蓮縣為例

Sustainable Development Evaluation by Grey Analysis for Taipei City, Taichung City, Kaoshiung City And Hualien County in Taiwan

王雪鍾(Hsieh-Chung Wang)

指導教授 ： 紀雲曜

長榮大學/管理學院/土地管理與開發研究所(在職專班)/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6833/CJCU.2008.00019

摘要

「永續發展」運動是二十世紀末最深入人心的全球性運動。隨著全球對生態環境觀念的成形，對於城市發展與規劃中不僅要追求經濟效率與社會公平更要兼顧環境保育，因此如何讓這三個面向持續均衡，更成為許多國家的積極的具體行動。隨著1990、1992、1996、2000、及2002先後已舉辦過五屆的國際生態城市會議，永續城市的規劃與建設已普遍取得全球的共識。本文主要依據世界各國永續城市指標體系，以及「台灣永續發展評量系統」中評選符合國內環境引用的共計39項指標，藉由擬定永續城市指標系統，作為將來台灣地區城市朝向永續發展可依循的依據。指標體系包括了1社會文化2經濟發展與3自然生態等三大系統；其中社會文化面計18項、經濟發展面計13項、自然環境面計8項，以建構符合台灣地區各縣市永續性城市的指標體系，共有39項指標因子。經蒐集統計數據後，藉由對偶比較法求得各個評估指標因子的權重；再以灰色系統理論中的灰關聯分析，檢視台灣四個城市於1998~2006年間的永續發展趨勢之排名。最後經由灰預測分析，了解四個城市重要永續指標因子的變化趨勢。

關鍵字

永續發展 ； 永續評估 ； 灰關聯分析 ； 灰預測

並列摘要

The movement of Sustainable Development has become the most in-depth global practice that emphasizes on meeting human needs in the end of 20th century. As the growing awareness in preserving ecological environment, city development does not focus solely on economic efficiency but justice in society and environmental protection. Therefore, it has become the continuing concrete action to balance the three aspects in many countries. During the international Eco-city conferences holding in 1990, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2002 have proved that planning and construction of sustainable development has become the global common issue. This context is in accordance with the global sustainable city index system, and the selected thirty nine index systems conforming to Taiwanese environment from the Taiwan Sustainable Development Evaluation System. Through learning the experience of establishing the sustainable city index systems, it could appraise the current sustainable developments in every city in the Taiwan area is appeal as the benchmark in the future.
The three systems include society culture, economic development, and natural ecology. Among them there are 39 factors; including 18 items in society culture, 13 items in economic development, and 8 items in the natural environment.
After gathering the statistics, it used the method of Paired Comparison to find out the significant of the appraisal index factors. Then it used the Grey Relational Analysis in the Grey System Theory to inspect the ranking of the current sustainable developments in Taipei city, Taichung city, Kaoshiung city and Hualien county from 1998 to 2006. Finally, it took the prediction model of GM(1,1) Alpha from the Grey Prediction Analysis to come out of the main index factors prediction in the four cities in 2007 and 2008 to probe into the current prediction of sustainable cities.

並列關鍵字

Sustainable development ； Sustainable evaluation ； Grey relational analysis ； Grey prediction

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