- 學位論文
「319槍擊案」對2004年總統選舉結果之影響研究
Impact of 319 SHOOTING EVENT on the 2004 Presidential Election Result
摘要
本研究希望透過問卷調查的分析，找出「319槍擊案」對2004年總統大選的影響程度，以及其後對朝野對立、政局動盪的相關影響，為目前台灣的政治情勢，做出明確的建議方向，以期朝野政黨及藍綠支持群眾有化解對立的可能，讓社會回歸理性常軌，共同為捍衛國家主權及打拼經濟而努力，勿再陷於意識型態的對立與仇恨的僵局中，相互內耗，彼此攻訐，拖垮了台灣。 在研究架構上，本研究係採用密西根學派的「漏斗狀的因果模型」。「漏斗狀的因果模型」是以社會心理學研究途徑，並綜合考慮形成選民投票抉擇的各項主要因素，可說是目前解釋選民投票行為最完整的理論模型之一。 「漏斗狀的因果模型」，是把個人的投票行為，比擬成一個漏斗。在漏斗口放進父母親的行為影響、社會背景、政黨認同等因素，經過中間管道的擠壓，比如對候選人個人特質的青睞、對政見議題的欣賞、或受到競選期間偶發事件的衝擊，最後擠壓向漏斗管，形成選民投票取向的產出。 回收問卷交叉分析發現，在投給扁呂配的604個樣本中，有510個是原本就決定要投給扁呂這組候選人，其餘94個是原本要投給連宋配，但因槍擊事件後改投扁呂。在投給連宋配的562個樣本中，有503個是原來就決定投連宋，但也有59個原本是要投扁呂，受到槍擊事件影響，改投連宋。 本研究發現觀測群體有因為「319槍擊案」而改變投票對象。 本研究持續針對2008年總統大選的投票意向作調查，看是否有受到319槍擊事件的影響。 研究結果發現大多數的選民依然會理性的選擇候選人，而不以政黨為投票考量，所以各政黨應努力推舉符合社會期待的候選人做為未來的大選參選人，如此將能贏得大選。
並列摘要
This research aims to utilize questionnaire analysis to search for the impact of “319 Shooting Event” on the 2004 Presidential Election and the relevant impact on the oppositional stands among the political parties as well as on the political turmoil. In addition, it attempts to help provide correct suggestions to the current political situation in Taiwan as an attempt to solve the competing confrontations among political parties and their supporters and to help our society resume to its rational process. Consequently, we can work together to protect our sovereignty and promote economy growth so the society will not fall into the dilemma of confrontation and hatred emerged out of different ideologies, nor will we deplete each other or confront each other and consequently collapse Taiwan. The research format relies on Michigan School’s “Funnel of Causality,” a socio-psychological research tool, along with the decisive factors for the electoral ballot decision. Funnel of Causality is currently one of the most complete theoretical models to explain the electoral ballot behavior. Funnel of Causality views individual ballot behavior as a funnel. First of all, all the factors such as the influence of parents’ behaviors, social backgrounds, identity of political party, etc. are first placed into the top of funnel, and later other factors such as the favor of individual characteristics of candidates, appreciation of campaign views, or the impact of accidents occurred during the campaign period are then squeezed through the middle pipe of the funnel. Finally the electoral ballot tendency emerges. The tabulated statistics of returning questionnaires indicate that 510 out of 604 samples for the Chen-Lu ticket already decided to vote for this ticket, and the rest of 94 wanted to vote for the Lien-Soong ticket at the first place. Due to the 319 Shooting Event, they changed their mind and voted for the Chen-Lu ticket. Similarly, 503 out of 562 samples for the Lien-Soong ticket already decided to vote for this ticket, and the rest of 59 wanted to vote for the Chen-Lu ticket at the first place. Due to the 319 Shooting Event, they changed their mind and voted for the Lien-Soong ticket. This study concludes that observation group members are subject to change their ballot for different candidate due to “319 Shooting Event.” This research aims to continue investigating the ballot tendency for the 2008 presidential election to evaluate if it will be influenced by the impact of “319 Shooting Event.” The research result indicates that most of the electorate still rationally choose candidates and don’t take political party into ballot consideration. Hence, each political party should work for endorsing candidates with satisfactory social qualifications as the future campaign candidates in order to win the victory.