航空公司在競爭激烈的觀光航線中,為爭取較大的運量與商機,提供整合飯店業者、旅遊業者與遊憩服務的套裝旅遊行程。在套裝旅遊行程內容中,消費者對套裝旅遊偏好認知較為模糊,造成許多不確定性偏好問題。研究中,當航空公司套裝旅遊方案以實驗設計組合方式之模擬情境呈現時,因受訪者對方案的模糊認知,較難明確填答出最佳方案,可能認為有些方案較好,或有些方案間無差異;亦可能受訪者對套裝旅遊資訊了解有限,造成部分方案無法比較之問題。本研究以航空公司套裝旅遊方案為例,探討消費者偏好不確定問題,以個體選擇模式為基礎建立套裝旅遊偏好模式,修正相關樣本集合建立不確定偏好模式,改善第一偏好法無法反應現實消費者對方案的評選行為,並提出模式效用函數與參數校估需修正之基本概念,了解消費者不確定偏好對於航空公司套裝旅遊產品之規劃影響。
Airlines cooperative with hotel and traveling industry to provide variety kinds of package tour for competing in tough situation. The consumer would be confused that result from the realization of information is different which provided by airlines causes many uncertainty problems. In discrete choice model, past researchers always adapt first choice method to collect the SP data that decision maker must choice one alternative to express its preference. When airlines display their package tour alternatives by stimulation in design of experiment, it’s hard to answer one best alternative to the customers, because some alternatives couldn’t be compared. Thus, this paper modify the data set that constructs strict preference model and uncertainty preference model within discrete choice model as basic theory to surmount uncertainty problem and analyze the effects to airlines which planning the package tour。