根據不動產市場的許多研究,影響住宅價格的層面非常廣泛,自然災害也是一項不可忽略的重要因素。但過去自然災害影響住宅價格變動的研究,多著重於單一災害事件對於住宅價格的影響,並利用複迴歸法、變異數分析等方法分析影響住宅價格變動的因素。洪水災害相較於其他的自然災害,具有發生頻率高及區域集中的特性,可透過長期資料的收集,分析不同災害規模對地區住宅價格的影響趨勢。本研究目的即在探討洪水災害事件對住宅價格的影響狀況,針對過去15年內(1992年∼2006年)不同洪水災害事件後住宅市場交易價格的變動,分析臺北縣內各鄉鎮洪水災害造成住宅價格下跌幅度與回復時間之特性。
According to the studies in the real estate market, a variety of factors would affect the housing price. Among them, the factor of natural disaster is considered an important attribute which cannot be downplayed. In the past, the studies were generally focused on the impact to the housing price due to one single event. The methods of multiple regression analysis and variance analysis were applied to evaluate the factors affecting the housing price. The flood disaster compared to the other natural disasters has characteristics of high occurrence frequency and occurrence in specific confined regions. Therefore, it allows long-term data collections and subsequent studies to evaluate the trend of housing price fluctuation due to various scales of flood disasters. This research has collected the seasonal housing price fluctuation at Taipei County in the past 15 years, from 1992 to 2006, due to flood disasters and tries to unveil the relation in the scale of housing price drop and the duration for price recovery due to flood disasters in the region.