不同資金流入對總體變數的影響—東亞國家

Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance – Asia Countries

劉晏瑄(Yen-Hsuan. Liu)

指導教授 ： 林靜儀

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2019年)

摘要

國際資金的流動自1990年代開始，逐漸成為全球關注的課題。隨著全球化發展經濟體之間關係日漸緊密，開發中國家接受大量外資流入的同時，除了接受技術進步、經濟成長、人民生活水準提升等好處外，1994年墨西哥金融危機及1997年亞洲金融風暴也彰顯政府對資金流動監管的重要性。過去至今累積許多國際資金相關的文獻，許多研究以開發中國家作為關注的主角。本篇將以東亞的已開發國家為主，研究不同類型的外資包含國外直接投資(FDI)、證券投資(FPI)、熱錢(Hot money)，不同衝擊會對台灣、韓國、日本的總體變數造成什麼樣的影響。實證分析使用季資料，以遞迴式VAR進行估計分析衝擊發生時會造成的影響。結果發現，與開發中國家不同之處在於，直接投資對三個已開發國家經濟成長的影響並不如開發中國家來的有幫助，台灣、韓國及日本的總體變數主要受到證券投資和熱錢兩種資金類型的影響。

關鍵字

外國直接投資 ； 證券投資 ； 熱錢

並列摘要

International capital flows play an important role in both developing and developed countries. It helps developed countries improving growth, living standards, and also production technologies. Every coin has two sides, the Mexican peso crisis in 1994 and Asian financial crisis in 1997 imply the importance of supervision of international capital flows. There are hundreds of papers relate to capital flows and the effect of recipient countries. However, few of them examine macroeconomic performance in developed countries by using different types of capital flows. Therefore, we consider three different capital flows, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and hot money, to analysis the impacts on Asia countries. In this paper we find the positive shock of portfolio investment and hot money are the main factors that affect the macro variables in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

並列關鍵字

FDI ； FPI ； Hotmoney ； VAR

參考文獻

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