隨著化學與生物科技的發展,製藥行業以產品是否原創為標準,劃分出生產專利藥/原研藥為主的大型跨國製藥企業,與生產仿製藥為主的中小型企業。近年來,二者之間的博弈吸引了國際社會的強烈關注。 本文首先分析了中國藥品市場內大型跨國製藥企業正面臨的兩大風險:一為重磅藥品的專利陸續過期,二為因中國新醫藥改革引起的利好政策緊縮。本文通過統計實證方法驗證,在中國市場的專利藥品失去專利保護后,「專利懸崖」現象並未出現;統計分析結果同時表明,對進口專利藥/原研藥利好政策的緊縮,目前已導致其一定程度的價格下降。 隨後,本文在對中國醫療保險制度和醫藥控費政策分析的基礎上分析在華跨國製藥企業的SWOT,并結合專家深度訪談,對新時期進口專利藥/原研藥的政策環境作出趨勢判斷:未來中國將繼續推行一系列控費政策,原研藥的價格和利潤將受到持續負面影響。基於此,本文繪製出符合中國市場的藥品生命週期曲線,并根據前述研究,為各個生命週期階段制訂出的不同管理策略,為在華跨國製藥企業提供管理建議。
With the evolution of chemical and biological technology, the pharmaceutical industry has split into two parts by originality standard. Generally, big business prefers creation while the small ones will participate by being copyists to the pioneer. Until now, the gambling game between the two opposite groups is a great magnet for researchers all over the world. This paper starts with the analysis of two threats which were facing by transnational pharmaceutical corporations in China. One kind is blooming patent expiration of blockbuster drugs, the other kind is tightening policy stirred by China’s medical reform. The statistical study demonstrates so far in China the patent cliff has not shaped, meanwhile, price reduction, which owes to policy has loomed. With a deep view of specialists, this paper deploys SWOT and policy trend analysis based on issues of medical care insurance management and cost controlling policy. It is predictable that more tightening policies will be published in China and cripple the benefit of transnational pharmaceutical corporations. Subsequently, with the basic pharmaceutical life cycle theory, a picture of advanced curve suitable for China is drawn, to illustrate a series of time-ordered management strategies for transnational pharmaceutical corporations in China.