- 學位論文
河內捷運對房地產價格影響-以台北市捷運為例
The Impact of Hanoi MRT on Real Estate Price - A Case Study of Taipei MRT
摘要
本文主要的目在預判河內房地產價格與捷運站之關係，研究範圍以台北捷運站周邊的房屋價格為基本資料及其他經濟指標來比較，而以此單位價格的影響，來探討未來河內捷運房產的契機。 1. 應用台北及河內捷運系統路網中之沿線車站地區進行實證研究，探討： 捷運系統於規劃階段、設計階段、興建階段房價的影響。 不同路線型式（高架、地下、地面）。 車站位置不同（市中心區、市區、邊緣區）。 以作為河內捷運系統對沿線不動產價格影響的解釋與分析之用。 2.其他影響房價因素：越南GDP與通膨、澳洲及大馬及首爾房價走勢、中國開發投資完成與100個城市均價樣本住宅的走勢圖、河內的公寓平均價格、越南的經濟增長和經濟活動指數VEPI、越南股市交易統計、USD到VND貨幣匯率。而影響捷運成功的主要因素為：人口數、人口密度、與公車票價的合理差距。 3. 結果推論是河內捷運系統全線通車與各階段之比較，2017年~2030年越南 GDP平均維持在4％以上及全球通膨平均維持在2％以上，漲幅為： 規劃階段，漲幅4~4.2倍。 動工時，漲幅3.4~4倍。 首線通車之漲幅2.1~2.5倍。 預計今年(2017)河內捷運首線通車，若政經環境持平，捷運車站周圍500公尺內至全線通車將會有一倍的漲幅，若再加上都會本身漲幅40％~80％，則為目前房價之1.4~1.8倍此發現不僅能提供房地產供給、需求者作為參考外，更可讓金融機構做評估授信客戶風險控管之參考。
並列摘要
This thesis is focused on estimation the relations between Hanoi’s real estate prices and MRT station. This research scope is based on home prices surrounding the Taipei MRT routes, and uses previously datum to discuss the real estate investment of Hanoi in the future. Thesis contents including three parts: 1. Application Taipei MRT routes’ stations for empirical research, exploring MRT related factors: a. MRT system planning, design, and construction stages. b. Construction patterns (including elevated, underground, and plane) c. MRT station locations (e. g. city center, urban area, and city border) 2. Other factors affecting housing prices: Vietnam GDP and inflation, Australia and Malaysia and Seoul housing prices, China's development investment completed with 100 cities average price sample housing charts, Hanoi apartment average price, Vietnam's economic growth and economic activity index VEPI, Vietnam stock market statistics, USD to VND currency exchange rates. The main factors that affect the success of the MRT are: population, population density, and bus fare a reasonable gap. 3. The result is the Hanoi MRT system across the board and the comparison of the various stages, the average increase is: Planning stage, about 4~5 times. Start, about, about,3.4~4 times. The first line opened up, about 2.1~2.5 times. It is expected that this year (2017) Hanoi MRT will be opened for the same time. These findings not only provide reference for real estate supply and demand, but also use to assess client’s risk-taking.