競爭威權政體的社會分歧與動員：香港區議會選舉分析（2007-2015）

Social Cleavages and Mobilization in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: A Study of District Council Elections in Hong Kong, 2007-2015

溫健民(Kin-Man Wan)

指導教授 ： 林宗弘

國立清華大學/人文社會學院/社會學研究所/碩士(2017年)

摘要

本研究結合政治社會學核心關懷的社會分歧理論，及比較政治學門的理論框架，提出政體內部結構以及政體類型會影響選民投票行為的命題。競爭威權政體裡，獨裁者在越趨不平等的社會，將面對打壓與收編的問題，並將界定收編的對象；而低收入者或工人階級亦因長期無法影響政策而轉向支持獨裁者。此互動過程使選舉結果有利於獨裁者。

本文以香港區議會選舉作為個案，利用2006年及2011年的香港人口普查，與2011年及2015年的區議會選舉結果資料合併成面版數據，透過迴歸模型探討選民的投票行為及變遷。研究結果顯示，低收入戶隨著時間變遷，轉向支持建制陣營，而中收入戶及擁有高等教育者則傾向支持泛民陣營。此外，使用普通話作為常用語言的新移民則穩定地支持建制陣營。上述結果主要透過恩庇侍從網絡的機制發生，而侍從主義的效應則主要發揮在低收入戶。同時，公共屋邨亦成為建制陣營建立侍從網絡的主要地方，泛民陣營在公共屋邨的優勢逐漸流失。

關鍵字

香港 ； 區議會選舉 ； 競爭威權政體 ； 社會分歧 ； 恩庇侍從

並列摘要

Combining the social cleavages theory from political sociology and the democratization theories from comparative politics, this study argues the structure of regime and regime type would affect the voting behavior of general voters. In competitive authoritarian regimes, the autocrats would face the co-optation problems, as a result, they would target a group of voters to co-opt, and interact with their responses. Since low-income groups or working class cannot change the rules, influence the policy decisions or get any interests if they vote for the opposite parties, they would turn to support the autocrats. This process would ultimately benefit the autocrats.

This paper uses Hong Kong District Councils Elections as a case to examine the above argument. Using Hong Kong Population Census data and District Council Elections results with regression to analyze the voting behavior and the changing trend, statistical results show that the low-income households turn their support to the pro-establishment camp from 2007 to 2015 significantly. Supporters of the pan-democracy camp are mostly coming from middle-income households and voters who have a higher education level. In addition, new migrants using Putonghua as their daily language tend to vote for the pro-establishment camp stably.

Patron-client system is the main mechanism to allow whether pro-establishment camp or pan-democracy camp to gain support from the low-income groups or from working class. Simultaneously, public housing areas become the important place for the pro-establishment camp to develop patrons-client networks, and the pan-democracy camp is losing support in public housing areas.

並列關鍵字

Hong Kong ； District Council Elections ； competitive authoritarian regimes ； social cleavages ； patron-client

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