- 學位論文
從資源依賴觀點看台灣薄膜太陽能電池產業發展前景
The Outlook of Taiwan's Thin-film Solar Cell Industry: A Resource Dependence View
摘要
太陽能電池（solar cell；photovoltaic；PV）是目前最受矚目的綠色能源，在近幾年德、日、美及其他國家等政府對太陽光電系統裝置的優惠補助下，市場需求急速擴增，產業成長快速，而台灣的太陽光電產業，也因茂迪、益通等廠商在國際上大放異彩，因此吸引了越來越多的追隨者競相投入。然而以目前的主流矽晶圓太陽能電池而言，由於上游多晶矽原料供不應求，因此矽材價格水漲船高，相對地也使得其生產成本降低的空間有限，因此具有低成本潛力、節省材料的次世代薄膜太陽能電池便成為發展的焦點。 本研究透過對薄膜太陽電池產業脈絡的瞭解，從成本分析的角度去界定何者為生產薄膜太陽電池之關鍵資源，經分析後，以生產cell端之設備（尤以真空電漿設備為最關鍵）及TCO玻璃為最關鍵，因此以此二者為主題，進而釐清薄膜太陽電池廠商、設備供應商、材料商之間之資源依賴關係，並企圖對台灣廠商之發展提供一可行的指向。而經研究發現，由於台灣廠商所使用之設備皆以turn-key解決方案為主，因此只能以效率、良率的改善僅能以製程上的改善為主，其在設備上的自主權極低，而其設備的自給，也因台灣設備商發展先進技術風險太高、製程難以驗證等問題，使得台灣廠商難逃對外設備商的依賴。至於在TCO玻璃部份，也需仰賴全球若干大廠的供給，因此依賴程度亦高，但台灣在此領域仍有涉入的機會。 面對未來潛在的商機與競爭下，本研究根據目前台灣廠商的狀況做出兩點指向：一、關鍵資源的移轉可從三點五代真空電漿設備與材料研發開始，以提高設備與材料自主性來降低生產成本。二、台灣廠商可嘗試以消費性產品為發展主軸，選定市場區隔，以創造獲利。
並列摘要
Solar cell（Photovoltaic/PV） is one of the promising areas of alternative energy. In recent years, due to the subsidies by local governments, the solar cell related market and industry are growing up rapidly, especially in German, Japan and United States. The PV industry in Taiwan is also in this bloom, Motech and E-ton are especially outstanding. The industry prospered and more and more late followers entered this market. However, with the strong growth of PV industry, the demand for silicon for silicon-based solar cells has exceed the amount available and has led rising silicon feedstock prices then restrained the cost-decreasing of silicon-based solar cells. Therefore, the next generation—“thin-film solar cell” becomes an emerging star for its cost potential and less material demand. To understand the detailed aspects of thin-film PV, research went through a cost analysis to determine the “key resource” for producing a thin-film PV. After analysis, the most critical resources are cell equipment and TCO glass. Therefore, research locked on these two subjects and tried to figure out the dependence relationship between thin-film PV manufacturers, equipment suppliers and material suppliers. What’s more, some feasible opinions would be proposed for Taiwanese thin-film PV manufacturers. Research has shown the Taiwanese manufacturers relied on turn-key solution. That is, they lose control power on equipment and can only do some improvements on manufacturing process. By the way, the domestic offer for equipment is also tough because of its immature technology, high risk and difficult verification. As for TCO glass, Taiwanese manufacturers also have to depend on several main global suppliers, but they still have a chance to get involved in. Finally, this research suggests that: a) For advancing the independence of equipment and material and reducing the cost, Taiwanese thin-film PV industry can try to begin with 3.5 generation vacuum plasma equipment and materials for transferring the key resource. b) Taiwanese manufacturers can attempt to focus on consumer products and choose a particular market for earning more profit.