不確定環境下高科技業產能擴充專案規劃

Capacity Expansion Project Planning under Uncertain Environments in a High-tech Industry

陳岑帆(Tsen-Fan Chen)

指導教授 ： 洪一峯

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本論文提出混合整數規劃求解高科技產業產能擴充專案問題。對高科技產業而言，產能擴充專案通常分成數個階段執行，前一階段完成後，才可繼續展開下一階段，而每一階段則包含數個具有順序關係的作業。在考慮未來需求與作業成本不確定性的情形下，本論文將此一產能擴充問題建構成隨機專案排程問題，並考量各作業前置時間、預算限制、資金調度因素於混合整數規劃模型中。目的為最佳化各作業的執行時間點與產能擴充量，以最小化期望缺貨成本、產能過剩成本與作業執行成本。最後，本論文針對需求機率、缺貨成本與產能過剩成本比率、資金的充足性進行實驗，藉此觀察與驗證模型的績效。

關鍵字

產能擴充 ； 專案排程 ； 專案網路 ； 混合整數規劃

並列摘要

This study proposes a mixed integer programming approach to solve the timing and amount of capacity expansion project under uncertain demands in a high-tech industry. Such a capacity expansion project is usually composed of several sequenced phases to create new capacity and each phase involves a set of activities with precedence relationships. Given multiple demand scenarios and activity cost scenarios with known probabilities, we formulate the capacity expansion problem as a stochastic project scheduling problem, in which lead time, budget limitation and allowance of debt are taken into consideration. The goal is to decide the amount of new capacity of activities and the timing to execute the activities, with the objective of minimizing the expected costs of undersupply and oversupply to future market demands and the expected cost of executing activities. Finally, we test three different experiments by changing the probability of scenarios, the ratio of undersupply cost to oversupply cost and the availability of budget, to observe the performance and verify our model.

並列關鍵字

Capacity expansion ； Project scheduling ； Project network ； Mixed integer programming

參考文獻

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