COVID-19危機後區域間外貿構成比較分析

Comparative analysis of the foreign trade composition after covid-19 pandemic crisis among the regions

奧太極(Otgontugs Osorjin)

指導教授 ： 邱婉茜

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/國際專業管理碩士班(IMBA)/碩士(2021年)

摘要

通過趨勢、共性和比較分析的結合，我們試圖研究鎖定對科維-19大流行的影響對非洲、亞洲和太平洋、拉丁美洲、歐洲、東地中海和北美等六個區域對外貿易平衡構成的更統一的影響。作為研究的結果，我們發現:(i) 儘管封鎖政策不同程度的嚴格性，但各地區的貿易額都出現了萎縮，對人民收入產生了負面影響; (ii) 有趣的是，當人們的收入在不確定的情況下減少時，每個地區都試圖限制他們的進口量，因此他們設法實現了積極的貿易平衡; (iii) 無論地區不同，經濟發展不同，貿易多樣化不同，封鎖策略不同，整個地區貨物進出口均出現突然波動性下降。就受「COVID-19」大流行所推動的單一區域而言，貿易量和貿易平衡對人民收入的相反影響可以抵消其負面影響。相比之下，通過全球貿易額的大幅下降，全球經濟的狀況更加糟糕。因此，應從穩定和可持續發展的角度進一步研究鎖定政策。

關鍵字

50 ； COVID-19大流行 ； 鎖定策略 ； 區域間外貿構成 ； 貿易差額 ； 貿易額

並列摘要

Through the combination of trend, covariance and comparative analysis, we tried to look into more uniform impact of lockdown impact against covid-19 pandemic to the composition of foreign trade and trade balance among the six regions including Africa, Asia and Pacific, Latin America, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean and North America. As a result of the study, we found that (i) regardless of different level of strictness in lockdown policy, every region experienced shrinkage in their trade volume and it impacted negatively to their people’s income; (ii) interestingly, when people’s income reduced in uncertain condition, every region tried to limit their import volume, hence they managed to have the positive trade balance; and (iii) regardless of different region, different economic development, different trade diversification, and different lockdown strategy, all the region suffered sudden volatile drop in their both goods exports and imports uniformly.
In terms of the single region under the lockdown driven by the covid-19 pandemic, the negative consequence could be neutralized by the opposite impact of trade volume and trade balance to people’s income. By contrast, through by huge decline in the global trade volume, the global economy is worse off severely. Therefore, the lockdown policy should be studied in further from the perspectives of stability and sustainability of economic development.

並列關鍵字

comparative analysis ； Covid-19 pandemic ； lockdown policy ； regional foreign trade composition ； trade balance ； trade volume

參考文獻

1. Abed, George T. (2003). "Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa" Archived 2017-12-23 at the Wayback Machine. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/med/2003/eng/abed.htm

2. Australian Government, Coronavirus and Australian workplace laws, 2021, Retrieved from: https://coronavirus.fairwork.gov.au/

3. Cannon, B. (2020). COVID-19 in Latin America: Uneven Responses, Uneven Impacts, Shared Challenges. In Cannon C. (Author) & Carmody P., McCann G., Colleran C., & O’Halloran C. (Eds.), COVID-19 in the Global South: Impacts and Responses (pp. 105-114). Bristol: Bristol University Press. Retrieved from doi:10.2307/j.ctv18gfz7c.17

4. Erin Duffin (2020). Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy - Statistics & Facts. Retrieved from: https://www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy/

5. International Labor Organization (2020), “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work”, Seventh edition. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-and-responses/WCMS_767028/lang--en/index.htm