實質匯率變動對廠商研發及進口資本財行為之影響：台灣製造業實證分析

The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Movements on R&D and Imported Capital Goods: An Empirical Study of Taiwanese Manufacturing Firms

胡媁婷(Wei-Ting HU)

指導教授 ： 馮炳萱

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2021年)

摘要

本文探討匯率變動對廠商研究發展密集度以及進口資本財的影響。為分析匯率變動對暴露於國際貿易市場中不同貿易額廠商研究發展密集度的影響，本文使用Ekholm et al (2012)方式建構淨匯率暴露變數。亦參考Nuccia and Pozzolo (2010)創建出口收入管道指標以及進口成本管道指標研究匯率變動如何分別影響不同出口份額廠商及進口份額廠商的研究發展密集度。本文也採用Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML)方法分析匯率變動對於廠商進口資本財決策的影響。實證上本文使用2006年到2017年台灣製造業廠商報稅資料結合勞工保險資料和海關貿易資料分析研發密集度。實證結果顯示無論在全部的製造業中或是高科技產業中，匯率升值使廠商研發密集度增加。但由於匯率升值減少出口商出口收入，降低廠商利潤之緣故，匯率升值對於出口收入占營業收入比率較高廠商效果較弱，進口成本管道係數則不顯著。除此之外，匯率變動的效果較不受廠商淨貿易暴露的影響。進口資本財實證分析採用2006年到2017年廠商產品以及進口國家資訊的海關資料，結果顯示在全部的製造業中，台幣升值減少進口成本，增加製造業廠商從不同國家進口資本設備，然而此效果在高科技產業中不具影響力。

關鍵字

匯率 ； 研究發展密集度 ； 進口資本財

並列摘要

This paper discusses the impact of real exchange rate movements on firm R&D intensity and imported capital goods. To explore whether the impact of exchange rate movements on the R&D intensity depends on firm exposure to international trade, this paper constructs the net currency exposure variable using Ekholm et al’s (2012) method. It also develops measures of the revenue channel and the cost channel based on Nuccia and Pozzolo’s (2010) method to explore how exchange rate movement separately affects R&D intensity via export revenue channel and import cost channel. This paper also adopts a Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to analyze the impact of real exchange rate changes on imported capital goods. Using corporate income tax data of Taiwanese manufacturing firms combined with labor insurance files and detailed customs data on international trade from 2006 to 2017, our empirical results on R&D intensity show that real currency appreciations increase firm R&D intensity. This effect is less pronounced on firms with larger share of exports in revenue but not affected by firm share of imports in costs. Besides, the exchange rate effect on R&D intensity is not affected by firm’s net exposure to international trade. These results also pertain to the subsample of high technology firm. Using detailed customs data at the firm-product-country level from 2006 to 2017, our empirical results on imported capital goods show that real currency appreciations increase imports of capital goods for all manufacturing firms but have little impact on imports of capital goods among high-technology firms.

並列關鍵字

Exchange rate ； R&D intensity ； Imported capital goods

參考文獻

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