匯率波動對臺灣-美國貿易間影響：以產業貿易資料分析

在國際貿易中，匯率具有舉足輕重的地位。根據經濟理論，匯率升(貶)值會造成進口上升(下降)，出口下降(上升)。除了匯率的升貶影響到貿易，匯率變動幅度的變化是否也會影響到兩國之間的貿易，這便是我們將在本文之中深入探討的議題。本文資料使用聯合國國際貿易標準分類(SITC，第 4 版)，將進、出口分成了 18 個類別，2001 年至 2018 年總共 18 年的月資料，本文實證結果發現臺灣的短期貿易，進口量有較多的產業容易受到韓圓－美金匯率波動影響，效果正負參半；而進口份額受到台幣－美金匯率波動影響較大，效果為正。出口量與出口份額則是容易受到台幣－美金匯率波動的影響，效果多為正向。長期下，無論是進口或是出口，份額或量，結果皆以無顯著相關為大宗。第三國效果的韓圓－美金匯率波動對於出口量影響效果顯著，超過一半的產業皆有顯著相關，且皆為正相關，顯示當韓圓－美金匯率波動上升時，臺灣產業的出口量會顯著的上升。

關鍵字

匯率波動；共整合分析；誤差校正模型；追蹤資料

並列摘要

Exchange rate plays an important role in the international trade filed. According to economic theory, import will be rise (decline) and export will be decline (rise) when exchange rate appreciation (depreciation). In addition to exchange rate fluctuations affecting trade, whether the change in exchange rate fluctuations will also affect trade is the topic we are going to discuss in depth in this article. The data in this article use the United Nations International Trade Standard Classification (SITC, 4th edition), which divided imports and exports into 18 categories, with a total of 18 years of monthly data from 2001 to 2018. In the long run, no matter whether it is import or export, share or quantity, the result is largely without significant correlation with the TWD－US dollar exchange rate fluctuations. The third-country effect, Korean Won-US dollar exchange rate fluctuations, has a significant effect on the export share and export quantity. More than half of the industries are significantly related and are positively correlated. This shows that when the Korean won-US dollar exchange rate fluctuation increases, Taiwan’s industrial exports both share and export quantity will rise significantly