許多文獻的實證結果顯示,參與貨幣聯盟可以增加國家貿易。1999年歐元發行後,使歐元區物價穩定,促進貿易與投資,更深化金融整合。「歐元之父」Mundell建議世界應該由美元、歐元和亞元共組大貨幣區,三幣之間固定匯率,使世界經濟保持穩定。 本研究嘗試推論亞洲地區成立亞元,對亞洲國家貿易的影響。為了探討貿易增加的途徑,將貿易量分解成extensive margin與intensive margin。Extensive margin指的是出口商品的種類數,而intensive margin指的是個別貿易商品的出口值。由於可以由extensive margin的增加衡量社會福利效果的改變,因此,extensive margin為近年來學者研究的目標。 本研究採用gravity model,利用不同區域樣本分析貨幣聯盟對該地區貿易的影響,再根據實證結果推論亞洲發行亞元對亞洲國家貿易的影響。結果顯示,亞元的發行將使亞洲地區之貿易有顯著的增長,主要來源為雙邊貿易商品種類的增加,即extensive margin增加。
Many empirical studies show that participating in currency unions can promote trade. After the Euro was released in 1999, the prices become stable, and it promotes trade and investments, and deepens financial integration in Euro area. Mundell suggests that there should be three major currencies in the world, including the Dollar, the Euro and Asian currency unit (ACU), and there should be a fixed exchange rate among them. This study attempts to infer ACU’s potential effects on Asian trade by decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, where the extensive margin is an increase in the number of firms or products, and the intensive margin is a rise in the value of trade by existing firms or products. Recent research in trade theory has emphasized this distinction, as it has intensive implications for the welfare gains of trade. This study uses empirical gravity model to quantify the effects using large panel data. Analyzing the effects of currency unions in different regions, and infer the effects of Asian countries based on other regional empirical results. The empirical results show that ACU will have a significant growth in trade in Asia largely at the extensive margin, the entry of new firms or products.