類流感高峰預測之相關議題

Some Issues on Peak Prediction for Influenza-Like Illness

吳齊軒

指導教授 ： 徐南蓉

國立清華大學/理學院/統計學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2010.00678

摘要

In this thesis, we review some models related to Influenza-Like Illness(ILI) and
investigate the need of peak prediction in practice and surveillance. By intuition, the
historical data provide a good predictor at the beginning, but become worthless at the
end of current season. We propose a nonlinear regression model to predict peak with
empirical prior as a penalize term which is a link between historical data and current
observation. Our method performs well six weeks before peak occurred.

關鍵字

類流感 ； ARIMA model ； 尖峰預測 ； 非線性迴歸

並列摘要

無資料

並列關鍵字

influenza ； ARIMA model ； peak prediction ； nonlinear regression

參考文獻

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