- 學位論文
風險管理架構下最佳混合再生能源系統設計
Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Design in a Risk Management Framework
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摘要
混合再生能源系統 (Hybrid Renewable Energy System, HRES) 為一個結合了多種能源的供電系統，其中包含太陽能發電、風力發電與備用電能，當再生能源發電量不足時，以傳統柴油發電作為小部分的備用電能。太陽能發電及風力發電為最具發展潛力的再生能源，亦兼顧環保、生態之潔淨發電方式而越來越受歡迎。然而真實環境下，受日昇日落、颳風下雨等自然現象影響，此不確定性將造成再生能源無法配合用電需求穩定供應電力，這使得HRES的使用產生供電量不穩定的疑慮。本論文目的為針對用電需求與再生能源供給皆為不確定的情況下，提出一個風險管理的決策架構，並在此架構下決定最佳混合式再生能源系統設計。本研究提出之模型不僅考慮HRES中可再生能源發電器之設備安裝且同時考慮各發電站之電力儲存與發電、傳輸和分配量之間關係，並應用一套有效的最佳化演算法以達成風險控制並同時滿足各區域電力需求的目標。論文最後有效整合即時電力監控、資料判讀、與最佳化的數學模型於一決策支援系統，以視覺化的輸出，提供系統化的能源管理最佳決策。
並列摘要
Hybrid renewable energy system (HRES), which combines several renewable power, including photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, and a small portion of power generated by conventional power generators as backups when the renewable power is insufficient, is gaining more popularity over the decades because it has minimal impact on environment and health. However, due to the uncertain amount of power generated by the HRES, the HRES-based power supply can be very unstable. In this paper, we propose a stochastic programming model and apply an analysis methodology to ensure the robust power supply and reduce the power shortage risk for HRES when the distribution of the amount of renewable power is ambiguous. In order to validate the performance of our methodology, we create some realistic-size scenarios to test the model and the proposed analysis methodology. Results show that the instances can be efficiently solved. Finally, we create a decision support system (DSS) that integrate the proposed model and the analysis methodology is developed as an efficient decision tool to enable effective and efficient energy management of HRES. The visualized outputs of DSS allow decision makers to gain better understanding about the management of HRES, facilitating the decision making process.
參考文獻
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