貿易隱含碳排放及影響因素之跨國比較分析

國際上不同生產階段的垂直專業分工已成近來國際貿易的趨勢，全球中間財貿易占整體貿易的份額日益增加，同時也加深碳洩漏（carbon leakage）的現象。本研究主要以多國產業關聯分析（multi-national input-output analysis）的架構，探討我國貿易隱含碳排放結餘（balance of emission embodied in trade，BEET）的變化情形，藉以探討我國在國際上的碳流動變化，此外，本研究進一步藉由結構分解分析（structural decomposition analysis，SDA）探討影響BEET變化之主要原因，並透過跨國比較分析，提供我國政府擬定減量策略時之參考。從實證結果來看，經濟發展程度較高的國家多為淨隱含碳洩漏國，如美國、日本，而開發中或新興國家則多為淨隱含碳接收國，如台灣、韓國、中國大陸。此外，比較各國在1995年至2009年之間的貿易隱含碳排放結餘變化影響因素，不論在出口或進口的隱含碳排放，各國的經濟規模效果是出口及進口隱含碳排放增加的主要原因之一，而在進口的世界其他國家碳強度效果大多呈現負向，代表全球在這段期間均相當致力於節能減排，抵消部份進口隱含碳排放增加的壓力，然而，台灣在分析期間的碳強度效果相對較其他國家弱，亦即台灣在分析期間的節能減量政策相較於其他國家仍顯不足。

關鍵字

多國投入產出模型；貿易隱含碳排放結餘；碳洩漏；結構分解

並列摘要

Economic globalization causes an increasing international fragmentation, with each country specializing in particular stages of a good’s production process. The share of trade in intermediate goods has increased significantly thus promoted carbon leakage. This paper applies the multi-country input-output model to investigate the balance of carbon emissions embodied in trade (BEET). Furthermore, we perform a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explore the determinants of the changing in BEET. Our results indicate that developed countries are mostly net carbon importers while developing countries are net carbon exporters. In addition, the SDA results reveal that the key factors contributing to the changes in BEET are economic scale and carbon intensity of both importer and exporter. The fallen in intensities of CO2 emission in industries offsets the pressure of emission by the increased volume of global final demand. However, the carbon intensity effect of Taiwan is relatively weaker than that of other countries. In other words, the energy saving and emission reduction policies of Taiwan were insufficient during 1995 to 2009.