中國城鄉家計能源消費與CO2排放之變化及影響因素分析

Sources of Change in Household Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Urban and Rural China

姜旭東(Xu-Dong Jiang)

指導教授 ： 林師模 ； 林晉勗

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201900523

摘要

近年來，城鎮化及家計消費的快速增長已經成為中國能源消費和二氧化碳排放增加的重要原因。本研究以2005-2015年之中國投入產出表及相關統計數據，利用投入產出模型估算上述期間家計部門直接及間接之能源消耗與CO2排放量，並比較城鄉間之差異。此外，本研究也進一步應用結構分解分析探討造成家計能源消費及CO2排放變化的主要影響因素為何。
研究結果發現：（1）城鎮家計能源消費和CO2排放量的成長速度大於鄉村家計部門；（2）城鎮家計消費是整體能源消費和CO2排放增加的主要原因；（3）家計人均消費的增加是CO2排放增加的重要因素，而能源強度降低則可以有效抑制家計消費所產生的CO2排放，特別是在城鎮地區；（4）城鎮化導致城鎮家計消費的CO2排放明顯增加，但對鄉村家計消費的CO2排放則有負向影響。上述研究結果顯示，城鎮化及家計消費結構的改變對中國能源消費及CO2排放量的增加有關鍵性的影響，因此，如何因應城鎮化及消費型態改變，有效提升能源使用效率及加強節能措施，將是有效減緩整體能源消費及CO2排放量增長之重要施政方針。

關鍵字

城鎮化 ； 能源消費 ； CO2排放 ； 投入產出分析 ； 結構分解分析

並列摘要

Urbanization and the rapid increase in household consumption over the past 20 years have been considered the most important factors, among others, that have contributed to the increase of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This study makes use of the 2005-2015 Chinese Input-Output Tables and other statistics together with an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions resulting from household consumption for China. Results related to urban and rural households are also compared to examine the possible contribution of urbanization to total energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, a structural decomposition analysis is performed to figure out the major factors that have caused the change of household energy consumption and CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2015.
Our results show that (1) the growth of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of urban household was higher than that of rural household; (2) the increase of total energy consumption and CO2 emissions was mainly caused by urban household consumption; (3) per capita household consumption has significantly increased CO2 emissions, while the reduction of energy intensity has mitigated the growth of CO2 emissions, especially in urban area; (4) urbanization has stimulated CO2 emission from the urban but depressed it from the rural areas. The above results indicate that urbanization and the change in household consumption structure have been the key factors causing the increase of energy consumption and CO2 emission in China over the periods 2005-2015. As such, designing and implementing effective energy- efficiency improvement and energy conservation policies are imperative for China for the next decades to come.

並列關鍵字

Urbanization ； energy consumption ； CO2 emission ； input-output analysis ； structural decompositon analysis

參考文獻

Bin, S., & Dowlatabadi, H. (2005). Consumer lifestyle approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions. Energy policy, 33(2), 197-208.

Boustead, I., & Hancock, G. F. (1979). Handbook of industrial energy analysis. E. Horwood.

Cellura, M., Longo, S., & Mistretta, M. (2012). Application of the structural decomposition analysis to assess the indirect energy consumption and air emission changes related to Italian households consumption. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(2), 1135-1145.

Chang, Y. F., & Lin, S. J. (1998). Structural decomposition of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan: an input-output approach. Energy Policy, 26(1), 5-12.

Chen, H., Jia, B., & Lau, S. S. Y. (2008). Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities: Challenges of a rapid urbanized economy. Habitat international, 32(1), 28-40.