台灣上市公司暫時性盈餘屬之研究

The Study on the Attributes of Transitory Earnings in Public Stock-Listed Companies in Taiwan

溫政斌(Cheng-Bin Wen)

指導教授 ： 曹壽民

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100002

摘要

本文以Ohlson（1999）為架構，且參考Feltham and Ohlson（1995）與Myers（1999），考慮帳面價值對暫時性盈餘的影響，並將其他資訊用截距項取代，發展出與暫時性有關之線性資訊模型與會計基礎評價模型，透過本文所發展之模型探討台灣上市公司暫時性盈餘之屬性。本文所欲探討之暫時性盈餘屬性為：1.預測無關論：暫時性盈餘無法用來預測下期盈餘。2.無持續能力：暫時性盈餘不具持續度。3.帳面價值會影響暫時性盈餘。4.評價無關論：暫時性盈餘與股票評價無關。5.績效無關論：管理當局的績效與暫時性盈餘無關。
本研究以國內上市公司為樣本，研究期間為民國79年第2季至民國89年第3季，共42季。在實證研究方面，本研究首先以Breusch and Pagan（1980）之Lagrange乘數統計量檢定各公司線性資訊模型與會計基礎評價模型之殘差項是否相關，結果發現多數公司各迴歸模型之殘差項具有相關，故以Seemingly Unrelated Regressions（SUR）執行個別公司時間序列聯立模型，並以Kolmogorov-Smirnov檢定，發現各迴歸模型係數多數符合常態分配，故以t檢定測試上述暫時性盈餘之屬性。
本研究發現：1. 暫時性盈餘與下一期異常盈餘負相關，但我們無法透過暫時性盈餘預測下一期盈餘。2. 暫時性盈餘是否有持續性，會因產業而異，但大致而言，暫時性盈餘具有持續性。3. 帳面價值對下一期暫時性盈餘有正向影響。 4.暫時性盈餘對當期股價有影響。5.管理當局的績效是否與暫時性盈餘有關，會因產業而異。

關鍵字

會計基礎評價模型 ； 線性資訊模型 ； 暫時性盈餘屬性

並列摘要

We develop our linear information model（LIM）and accounting-base valuation model by utilizing the framework in Ohlson（1999）and add the conservatism parameter of Feltham and Ohlson（1995）. We also replace the information other than abnormal earnings for a intercept according to Myers（1999）. This study discusses following attributes of transitory earnings：（i）forecasting irrelevance .（ii）unpredictability.（iii）book value influences next-period transitory earnings.（iv）value irrelevance.（v）effort irrelevance.
With respect to empirical results, we obtain data for second quarter of 1990 to third quarter of 2000. By using Lagrange test of Breusch and Pagan（1980）, we find that residuals of equations have relations in most companies. Therefore, we use time-series Seemingly Unrelated Regression（SUR）. We also find that most parameters of equations follow normal distribution by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, so t test is adopted to test attributes of transitory earnings.
We find that：（i）in some industries, transitory earnings can’t forecast next-period aggregate earnings. （ii）current transitory earnings can’t predict next-period transitory earnings. （iii）the higher current book value, the higher next-period transitory earnings. （iv）current transitory influences current stock price. （v）in some industries, managerial effort can influences transitory earnings.

並列關鍵字

linear information model ； accounting-base valuation model ； attributes of transitory earnings.

參考文獻

Ohlson, J.A. “. On Transitory Earnings.” Review of Accounting Studies.16,1999:145-162.

Beaver, W.. “Financial Reporting an Accounting: Revolution, first edition.” Englewook cliffs: Prentice-Hall,1981.

Barth, M. E.,W.H. Beaver, J.R. Hand, and W. R. Landsman. “Relative Valution Roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health.” Journal of Accounting and Economics .25(1),1998:1-34.

Beaver, W., R. Lambert, and D. Morse.. “The information Content of Security.” Journal of Accounting and Economics . 1980:3-28.

Beaver, W., R. Lambert, and Ryan.. “The information Content of Security Price :A Second Look.” Journal of Accounting and Economics .1987:139-157.