台灣發電系統整體資源規劃

Integrated Resource Planning of Taiwan Power Generation System

陳孟誼(Mang-Yi Chen)

指導教授 ： 楊宏澤

中原大學/工學院/電機工程研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100379

摘要

追求高可靠度的電力供應係電力公司長期努力的目標。電業開放民營化與自由化係政府既定的政策目標。未來的發電業市場除原台電公司機組外，必將開放更多民營機組進入市場營運，因此，除了維持穩定可靠度外，成本的考量亦隨民營化後成為重要參考之依據。然而，電力市場具有公用事業特性，影響國防、民生與各級工業，相當廣泛而深遠。站在整體國家資源分配的立場，過多電力投資必將造成無謂的浪費。因此，藉由整體電力資源調派的角度，進行未來電源供給投資與運轉策略的規劃，乃有其急迫與需要性。
本文乃針對上述背景，建構一系列整體電力資源規劃分析模式，文中首先收集燃料成本預測走勢、二氧化碳減量成本估測值、缺電成本及發電機組之特性資料，繼而研究發電業市場結構及其運作情形。在本論文中也探討需求面管理對系統可靠度及備用容量訂定標準之影響。
根據上述所蒐集之資料，本文構建之系統最佳整體電力資源規劃模型，主要包含機率運轉模擬方塊平移法和動態規劃法模型。藉由所建構完成之規劃模型，對未來核四機組加入與否等各種情境，在系統中、長期發電系統規劃中予以分析。本文最後藉由動態規劃法與蒙第卡羅羅模擬法分別獲得最適供電可靠度暨合理備用容量率，其結果將於本論文中加以分析探討。

關鍵字

成本分析 ； 動態規劃法 ； 可靠度 ； 蒙第卡羅法 ； 運轉模擬

並列摘要

Pursuing high reliability of power supply is the objective of power utilities. Privatization and deregulation of the power industry are the definite goal of the government. In the future power market, in addition to the original Taipower generating units, the government will let more private generators enter the power market. Besides keeping high reliability, cost evaluation will become an important factor as the power market opened. However, power market has the characteristics of public utilities, which have extensive impact on national security, people’s life, and various industries. From the global view of a nation’s resource distribution, surplus power investment will cause waste of resource. Therefore, following power industry liberalization, it is urgent and necessary through integrated power resource planning to schedule both power supply and demand side management.
To deal with the above conditions, the thesis aims at building a series of optimal integrated power resource planning models. Collected first are the data for predictions of the fuel-cost trends, assessment of carbon-dioxide reduction and power interruption costs, as well as characteristics of generating units. Investigated are the structures of the power generation market and its operations. Impacts of the demand side management on the system reliability and reserve capacity rate standards are also studied in the thesis.
According to the data collected, the developed optimal integrated power resource planning models mainly contains the black-shift method based probabilistic production simulation and the dynamic programming model. By using the planning models developed, the mid- to long-term power generation plans are analyzed from different scenarios with or without new nuclear units installed in the future. Finally, the most adequate system expansion plan and reasonable rate of capacity reserve are obtained through dynamic programming structure as well as Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. The results are presented and discussed in the thesis.

並列關鍵字

Cost Analysis ； Production Simulation ； Reliability ； Dynamic Programming ； Monte-Carlo Simulation

參考文獻

[1]L.T.O. Youn, K.Y. Lee and Y.M. Park, “Option Long-rang Generation Expansion Planning for Hydro-thermal System Based on Analytical Production Costing Model,” IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. PWRS-2, No. 2, May 1987, pp. 278-286.

[2]J.A. Bloom and L. Charny, “Long Rang Generation Planning with Limited Energy and Storage Plants Part I: Production Costing,” IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-102, No. 9, 1983, pp. 2861-2870.

[3]B.Y Lee, Y.M. Park and K.Y. Lee, “Optional Generation Planning for a Thermal System with Pumped-storage Based on Analytical Production Costing Model,” IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. PWR- 2, No. 2, May 1987, pp. 486-493.

[4]J.P. Stremel, “Production Costing for Long-range Generation Expansion Planning Studies,” IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS- 101, No. 3, March 1982, pp. 526- 536.

[5]K.M. Dale, “Dynamic-programming Approach to the Selection and Timing of Generation-plant Addition,” PROC. IEE, Vol. 113, No. 5, 1966, pp. 803- 811.