台灣晶圓代工產業景氣循環與經營績效之研究—以台積電與聯電為例—

A Study of Taiwan's Business Cycle of IC Foundry Industry and Operating Efficiency TSMC and UMC as Examples

李聰祥(Tung-Sing Lee)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2003年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200300546

摘要

中文摘要
電子業是台灣最重要的產業之一，其中半導體產業，已成為全球半導體代工重鎮。由於半導體產業景氣的大好大壞，使得半導體產業的廠商營運績效亦呈現大幅成長或衰退。當景氣擴張時，需求增加，生產與銷售亦提高，進而導致生產者提昇投資金額，因而造成資本支出大幅成長，但隨著新廠的逐漸完工並量產，供給大幅增加，因而積體電路( Integrated Circuit；IC )的平均銷售價格(ASP)逐步滑落，景氣便產生低迷現象。政府、企業管理當局及投資者實有必要了解該產業景氣波動對企業經營績效的影響。
本研究特以台灣兩家龍頭電子廠商的晶圓代工上市公司台積電與聯電為研究對象，研究期間為民國87年至民國91年，完整包含一個景氣循環。本研究採用迴歸方式對財報資料進行實證探討，以探討台灣晶圓代工業之景氣循環與企業經營績效的關聯性，對實證結果加以綜合整理，得到三個結論如下：
1.半導體設備訂單與出貨比與企業經營績效有顯著相關
本研究發現，半導體設備訂單與出貨比(B/B)與企業經營績效有顯著相關。
2.產業景氣循環的供給面及需求面與企業經營績效有顯著正相關
不論採用平均薪資指數(ASI)、或工業生產指數(IPI)、或是合併採用(ASI and IPI)，產業景氣循環與企業的經營績效均呈顯著正相關，此點顯示晶圓代工產業的經營績效深受景氣循環的影響。
3.企業成長性指標與企業經營績效有顯著正相關
銷貨成長率(SG)及稅後損益成長率(PATG)與企業經營績效皆呈顯著正相關，顯示產業景氣循環與企業的經營績效呈顯著正向關係。
由研究結論得知，只要投資人注意上述景氣衡量指標的變化，便可掌握產業景氣循環的脈動現象，以為擬定投資決策時的參考。

關鍵字

晶圓代工 ； 景氣循環

並列摘要

Abstract

The economic development in Taiwan has been grown for the past two decades. The electronic industry became the major part of the industry constructor in Taiwan, and the semiconductor manufacturers also became the essential district global semiconductor industry. The sales performance of the semiconductor industry follows the trends of economic prosperity or depression. When the demand of the market is raised, the production and the sales of the semiconductor industry is increased subsequently, and the suppliers are willing to invest heavily in the plant, land, and equipment. The total capital investment of the industry has been greatly increased, but the average sales price (ASP) of IC has been slow down under the condition that the new facilities are built up to mass production to make the supply to be deeply increased. The government agencies, the management of the enterprise and the investors have the need to understand the relationship of the development of the industry and management performance.

This work targets at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacture Corporation (TSMC) and United Manufacture Corporation ( UMC) which are the top two publicly listed manufacturers of the electronics in Taiwan. This study investigates the impact of the business cycle between 1998 and 2002 on the financial performance of the firms in the semiconductor industry. The summary of the empirical results is listed as follows:

1. The relationship between the B/B ratio of the semiconductor equipment and
the performance of the business is significantly relevant.

2. There is a significantly positive relation between the supply and demand of
the semiconductor industry and the performance of the semiconductor industry.
The variable used in this study are the average salary index (ASI), the industry production index (IPI) and the combined index of the ASI and IPI, which consequently demonstrated that the semiconductor industry’s performance had deeply been affected by business cycle.

3. The relationship between the growth index of the business and the performance of management is significantly positive. For example, there is a significantly positive relation between the sales growth rate, and the net profit after tax growth rate, which indicates that there is a significantly positive relation between the performance of management and the business cycle of the semiconductor industry.

並列關鍵字

Business Cycle ； IC Foundry Industry

參考文獻

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