貨幣供給、系統風險與產業垂直整合

Money supply, Systematic risk and Industry vertical integration

李榮凱(Rung-Kai Li)

指導教授 ： 吳博欽

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500151

摘要

在全球化、自由化的衝擊與資訊科技日新月異的帶動下，國內產業發展、金融體系及外匯市場均受到影響。其中以與經濟體系波動對產業結構調整的衝擊更值得關注。在產業結構的調整過程中，產業垂直整合持續在各國進行。究竟貨幣供給與系統風險如何影響產業垂直整合是本文研究的重心。
本文以Kildegaard and Williams（2002）的模型為基礎加以修改，分別用不同指標衡量金融發展，並以系統風險(以匯率、利率、物價、景氣循環表示)取代原模型的匯率波動，以增加模型的解釋能力，且符合台灣現狀，以分析金融發展、匯率波動及其他代表系統風險對我國九大產業垂直整合的影響。其次，探討產業的中間投入高低及不同產業類型(服務業、非服務業)與影響產業垂直整合的變數之間是否存有一定的關係。實證上採用混合估計法(pooled estimation)進行分析，期間為1981年至2003年，產業則以我國九大產業為對象。
本文之實證可獲得下列結果：
（一）台灣主要仰賴進出口貿易及企業型態以中小企業為主，使得匯率波動及總體經濟的負面衝擊愈大，卻對產業垂直整合的誘因降低，這兩點與Kildegaard and Williams（2002）所提出的假設出現差異。
（二）在不考慮各變數對產業差異的影響下，匯率波動、產業景氣狀況、總體經濟面的衝擊、利率波動對產業垂直整合的影響是顯著的。
（三）考慮各變數對產業差異的影響下，以利率波動、金融發展與總體經濟的負面衝擊對產業垂直整合的影響較為重要。
（四）隨著國內金融市場的開放，造成銀行之良性競爭，使得國內的貨幣供給提高時，對產業垂直整合的情況並不顯著。
（五）由於低中間投入產業不需仰賴大量原物料進口，故匯率波動及通貨膨脹對於產業垂直整合的誘因相對降低。
（六）在全球服務產業的日益蓬勃發展下，使得台灣服務產業面臨國外的競爭提升，而廠商為了應付激烈的競爭，將會加速服務產業的垂直整合。

關鍵字

固定效果模型 ； 系統風險 ； 垂直整合

並列摘要

Nowadays the domestic industries development, financing systems, and foreign exchange market are inevitably affected by impacts of globalization and free trade trends and they are further worsened by rapidly rocketing up of information technology and IT applications. Among others, however, the impacts of economic system fluctuation towards industrial infrastructure regulation especially deserves deserve major concern. During the course of regulation of industrial infrastructure obviously vertical integration among industries has been undergoing steadily throughout the whole world. The present study aims at exactly how money supply and system risks affect industrial vertical integration.
This study tries to analyze the influence and affection of financing development, foreign exchange rate fluctuation, and other typical systematic risks to the vertical integration of nine major industries in this country by adapting a modified Kildegaard and Williams (2002) model, in which each of various indicators is used to measure the financing development respectively and systematic risks – expressed with foreign exchange rate, interest rate, price level and business cycle – are used in replacement of the foreign exchange fluctuation used in the original model in order to increasing the model’s interpretation capability and better describing the practical conditions and status found in Taiwan. Secondly this study explores whether if a certain relationship exists between the variables affecting industrial vertical integration and the intermediate inputs levels and different industrial divisions such as service industries and non-service industries. In the analysis, the Pooled Estimation is adapted empirically on Taiwan’s nine major industrial sectors as target subject and for the target period from 1981 to 2003.
Through the empirical analysis to the methods mentioned above this study concludes the findings as follows:
1. The heavier the negative impacts to foreign exchange fluctuation and macroscopic economy the lower the incentive factors for industrial vertical integration becomes thanks to the nature of Taiwan’s economy which lies on import/export trade largely and the unique business pattern – mainly small and medium businesses. These reveal difference from the assumptions by Kildegaard and Williams (2002).
2. When ignoring the influence of each variable to industrial sector difference, foreign exchange fluctuation, business cycle, macroscopic economy impacts and interest rate fluctuation demonstrate a significant influence to industrial vertical integration.
3. When taking into consideration the influence of each variable to industrial sector difference, among others interest rate fluctuation, financing development and negative to impacts macroscopic economy demonstrate relatively critical influence.
4. Following the opening of domestic financing market, the increase in financing share among the domestic banks resulted from the healthy competition between them does not demonstrate any significant influence to industrial vertical integration.
5. In view of the low intermediate inputs industrial sector does not rely on mass import of raw materials, foreign exchange fluctuation and inflation demonstrate relatively decreased incentive effect to industrial vertical integration.
6. In the context of steadily booming of service industries in the global market, Taiwan’s service industries are confronting the increasingly fierce competitions from overseas; hence Taiwan’s businesses will choose to expedite the vertical integration of service industries in order to answer the coming fierce competition.

並列關鍵字

Panel data

參考文獻

吳博欽、金祥玉 (2004)，銀行體系、匯率波動與產業垂直整合，中原學報第三十二卷第四期，467-475。

黃淑慧 (2004)，股價的評估及其動態調整─以我國電信產業為例，中原大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。

彭惠琴 (2003)，通貨膨脹、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性，中原大學國際貿易所碩士論文。

Amihud, Y., DeLong, G.L. and A. Saunders (2002), “The effects of cross-border bank mergers on bank risk and value,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 857–877.

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Rhee, Hyun-Jae, (1997), “Response of domestic production to depreciation in Korea: an application of Johansen’s cointegration methodology,” International Economic Journal, 103-112.