建立企業財務預警模型以降低銀行授信風險之研究

A Study on Bank’s Reducing Credit Risk by Establishing Precautionary Finance Model on Private Enterprise

賴東聖(Dong-Sheng Lai)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500641

摘要

公司營運良窳攸關銀行授信決策，乃至投資人之投資意願，然而因為資訊的不對稱性，使得外部人員對於公司實際營運概況無法全盤了解，為協助外部人員熟悉公司營運、獲利與投資決策之優缺點，亟待建立一具預測與鑑別能力之財務預警模型。本研究係採用logistic迴歸模型建構財務預警模型，研究樣本期間從1999年1月至2005年3月，參酌股市觀測站與台灣經濟新報資料，選取42家具財務危機公司，並比對42家產業、規模相仿之正常公司。經實證結果顯示，存貨週轉率、每股盈餘、總資產週轉率、股東權益報酬率、現金流量比率等變數，可供建立財務惡化前之預警模型。本次研究對原始樣本預測正確區別率為：90.8%（前一年）、88.4%（前二年）、75.9%（前三年）。

關鍵字

財務危機 ； 財務比率 ； logistic迴歸分析 ； 財務預警模式

並列摘要

A company’s operational performance usually affects the loan decision-making of it’s funding bank and the anticipation of investors. Because the information’s asymmetry causes the exterior persons unable to survey the actual situation of a business, therefore, for assisting them to get familiar with the company’ management , and the profit of the investment, a precautionary early finance-warning model with the ability to forecast must to be established.
This research used the logistic regression to conduct the construction of the precationary finance warning model. All of the data come from the on-line data base of the Taiwan Economic Journal Co. Ltd. and the Market Observation open system. The study obtained 42 distressed firms and 42 regular firms in the same industry and the time span is from 1999 to 2004.
The major findings of the empirical examination is that the firm’s inventory turnover ratio, the earnings per share, the total property turnover ratio and cash flow capacity ratio variables are statistically significant to establish the Logistic finance early warning model. The forecast correct difference rates of primitive sample are: 90.8% (previous year), 88.4% (previous two years), and 75.9% (previous three years), respectively.

並列關鍵字

financial ratio ； financial crisis ； logistic regression model ； precautionary financial early warning model

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