- 學位論文
以系統動力學探討軟體開發專案之動態規劃特性
The Planning Characteristics of System Development Project Management：A System Dynamics Approach
摘要
軟體專案管理領域提出假說不困難，想要驗證它們卻不容易。系統動力學的電腦模擬工具，提供一個進行模擬實驗的載具，不同的假設和因子水準所產生的效應能夠有效地被測試，排除真實世界中的不受控性，模型系統可以很容易地控制其他因子，在維持不變的情況下祗改變某些特定因子水準，藉以觀察其所引發的效應。這樣的工具特性，非常適合探討相關軟體專案規劃過程中的管理議題 。 本研究表達一個以電腦為基礎的情境模擬模式，透過情境設計與實驗之進行，觀察設定情境下的系統動態變化。研究目的： 1.支援專案規劃活動之管理決策制訂，發展一個具像、可解、可量化的軟體開發動態規劃模式基本平臺，透過實驗模擬程序，考量可能發生的意外狀況，評估處理的對策與方案。 2.觀察、解釋現象，提昇軟體開發專案管理性議題之洞悉力，進而發展軟體專案規劃技巧。 3.探討Brooks’Law及相關假說，藉由對問題的動態行為的了解與認識，提昇對相關管理議題的預知能力。 4.擴大核心模式列入各項行為組合模組，探索不同因子水準組合下人力水準、專案時程、耗用心力、品質水準、生產力表現及專案成本之變化，掌握系統內各變數間的關聯性，藉以改善專案規劃作業品質。 模式構建程序是以1999年Madachy,R的Brooks’定律系統動態模式為核心模式，依據軟體專案管理基本知識建立變數因果關係環路圖、撰寫行為方程式進行電腦模式轉換，藉由行為控制變數將參考行為模組獨立於核心模組之外，使用情境引導方式觀察設定情境下的系統動態行為變化。考量因子包括，時程壓力、重工、加班、工作重分配、人力補充型式、舒壓措施、人員流動等行為，並對軟體開發過程中的風險因子 - 需求變更解答所謂 ”What If”問題。 本模式不是一個推估模式；模式建構並未參照業界案例或特定某類軟體開發專案，資料取得來自於文獻、個人及同業經驗。研究聚焦於模擬結果的趨勢分析及管理意涵的探索而非定量分析的觀點。模擬程序之進行，利用反覆不斷地修正參數或重新定義行為方程式的方式提高對某現象的解釋力。模擬本身不是一種求解工具而是一種評估工具，提供對某系統行為的洞悉力，協助管理性決策制定，是一種驗證決策的方法。
並列摘要
In software engineering it is easy to propose hypotheses and remarkably difficult to test them. Many in the field have argued for the desirability of having a laboratory tool for testing ideas and hypotheses in software engineering. The simulation component of the model is implemented using the System Dynamics simulation modeling method; the computer simulations tools provide us with such an experimentation vehicle. The effects of different assumptions and environmental factors can be tested. In the model system, unlike the real systems the effect of changing one factor can be observed while all other factors are held unchanged. Many considered realistic situations that they may encounter in practice and allow them to develop experience without the risks incurred in the real world. The main objective of the research reported in this paper is to build a simulation-based module that helps project planner comprehend the complex decision-making situations, which are characterized by trade-off effects between goals. In which can be used to visualize the behavior of selected parts of a software development planning process, furthermore improving the working quality in the planning activity of software project management. Also by simulation new knowledge can be gained that can help to improve current processes. Simulation can also be used for training and to enforce motivation for changes. The research is focused on the tendencies of the simulation results and not the quantitative aspects. A model created by the System Dynamics simulation modeling method with data collected from literatures, interviews and observations. The model simulated by a commercial simulation tool Vensim DSS v4.0 will present the design of the simulation model based on the system dynamics model of Brooks’ Law, which was published by Madachy, R in 1999 and to cite as core of the model and to train/validate model with the typical behaviors of software development. The key result variables of the simulation model represent project duration, effort consumption, and product quality & cost after system test.