具時間向度之修正管流類推法應用於起迄推估模式之建立-以高速公路為例

Applying a Modified Fluid Analogy Method with Time Dimension on Origin-Destination Estimation of Freeway Corridors

林志豪(Chi-Hao Lin)

指導教授 ： 廖祐君

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200600093

摘要

運輸廊道系統如高速公路系統之O-D起迄旅次分佈資料為運輸實務之重要參考資料，但要正確快速獲得運輸廊道系統之起迄旅次資料相當困難，其需要投入大量之人力資源、時間與資金，且所獲得之資料也未盡準確。因此許多學者研究在可容忍誤差下，如何有效地推估出可信之起迄旅次資料。本研究所利用之管流類推法(Fluid Analogy Method)，毋須歷史資料啟發推估程序只需要運輸廊道系統之各起迄站進出流量資料，此資料相對較易獲得，然而原始方法需修正方能應用在運輸廊道系統上。
本研究首先從時間向度觀點區分傳統應用此方法公車系統與運輸廊道系統之差異，以瞭解Tsygalnitzky(1977)所提出之管流類推法應用於運輸廊道系統上之未盡合理處。接者，本研究提出具有時間向度之修正管流類推法並以此建立起迄推估模式，藉由不同範例設計檢測此推估結果，進而瞭解模式之特性與推估能力。此推估模式之建立主要利用全天各迄點之相對吸引力值(Ae值)，假設其與各單位時間區之各迄點Ae值相同，並作為每單位時間區之旅次分配比例，推估出各組起迄旅次流量。此外本研究還假設車輛在運輸廊道系統之行駛速率為定值，進而推估出各起迄流量離開運輸廊道系統之時間區。本研究結果顯示，具時間向度之修正管流類推法可直接有效地應用於運輸廊道系統起迄推估，且具有不錯之推估能力。

關鍵字

相對吸引力參數值 ； 管流類推法 ； 起迄推估 ； 運輸廊道 ； 時間向度

並列摘要

Information of origin-destination flow interchange is important. But collecting such data is costly and time consuming. Therefore, various methodologies were developed for O-D estimation with various limits and hardship. In this study, Fluid Analogy Method was adapted for model building due to no historical OD records required as other models to start the estimation process. The needed traffic counts of in and out flows at ramps are relatively easier to gather. However, the original Fluid Analogy Method needs to be modified for use on freeway corridors.
In this study, the difference between bus system for which the original method usually applied and freeway corridors were examined first and analyzed. The major factor differentiating the latter from the former is the existence of time dimension. The purpose of this study was therefore to modify the original Fluid Analogy Method along time dimension and apply it on origin-destination estimation for freeways. An important assumption was made as the factor of relative attractiveness (Ae) of the individual time unit being same as Ae of the day as a whole. Additionally, a constant speed was assumed along the corridor for testing the estimation ability for time of interchange flows getting off the corridor. The results of this study stated that the modified Fluid Analogy Method with time dimension was able to deliver sound origin-destination estimation of both flow and time along freeway corridors.

並列關鍵字

factor of relative attractiveness ； Fluid Analogy Method ； time-dimension ； freeway corridors ； origin-destination estimation

參考文獻

27. 郭衣宬，民國94年，運輸廊道站間起迄量推估方法之研究，私立中原大學土木工程學系研究所碩士論文

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