近幾年來,電子業一直是台灣經濟成長的主力產業,政府給予優惠的補助方案,使其蓬勃發展,尤以半導體產業是政府重點發展的其中一項產業,政府積極的推動,以及民間企業因看好其發展潛力而全力配合,似乎也吸引投資人的關注。因此,本文嘗試找出適合半導體產業的評價模式,以作為投資的重要參考依據。 本文以Ohlson(1995)的評價模式為基礎,加入監理機制因子與系統性風險因素作為模式中非會計資訊的替代變數,建構出同時考量公司內、外部風險的評價模式。實證上篩選出22家上市上櫃半導體公司,並配合使用panel data進行股價評估,利用2000年第三季至2009年第三季共計36筆季資料,其中2000年第三季至2008年第三季為樣本內期間,2008年第四季至2009年第三季為樣本外期間。 實證結果發現,監理機制因子方面,董監事持股比率對提昇公司股價具有顯著的正向效果;經理人持股比率、外資持股比率對公司股價則是顯著的負向衝擊。若進一步考慮各個變數對公司個股股價的差異性影響,結果顯示不同變數對各公司股價的影響存有差異性,且股價評價模型的解釋能力能夠提升。
In the past few years, the electronic industry has been playing an important role in promoting the economic growth of Taiwan. Particularly, with the government’s active promotion by providing the preferential subsidy program, and fully support from private enterprises due to their optimistic development potential, the semiconductor industry has become a key industry in the government’s industrial policies, and attracts the attention of investors. Therefore, this paper attempts to find out the appropriate evaluation model for the semiconductor industry, as an important reference for investment. This paper modifies the Ohlson’s (1995) equity evaluation model by replacing the non-accounting information with the factors representing governance mechanism and systematic risks, to construct the extended Ohlson evaluation model to cover a company’s internal and external risks at same time. In empirical study, this paper employs the panel data to approach to evaluate stock prices. The sample objects are 22 listed semiconductor companies. The sample period spans from 2000 Q3 to 2009 Q3 whilst 2000 Q3 ~ 2008 Q3 is the in-sample period and the remainder is the out-of-sample period. The evidence results indicate that the factors representing governance mechanism has significant effects on stock price whilst the shareholding ratio of member of the board and of supervisor has positive effect; however, the shareholding ratios of manager and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) have negative effects. If we further consider the differential effect of each variable on the stock price, the result shows that different variables have differential effects on stock prices, and the differential slope models can enhance the explanatory capability of the extended Ohlson equity evaluation model.