應用案例式推理法於西北颱降雨研究

Research on northwestern typhoon rainfall by using case-based reasoning method

林志鍵(Chich-Chien Lin)

指導教授 ： 邱金火

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201100956

摘要

本研究將1950至2009年間之206個颱風依侵台近中心最低氣壓、侵台近中心最大風速、全程近中心最大風速、逼近台灣時移動速度、暴風半徑及雨量等屬性，建立起資料庫，依序以案例式推理法推估西北颱降雨量，將推估雨量與觀測雨量比較，探討其相對誤差。

文中以歐式距離法及權重法，作為案例式推理求相似度的準則。以歐式距離法求相似度時，所得推估雨量與觀測雨量之相對誤差總平均為24.97%；以權重法求相似度時，所得推估雨量與觀測雨量之相對誤差總平均為19.66%。若取兩方法所得之推估雨量平均值與觀測雨量作比較，其誤差總平均為21.33%。
本研究結果可當作未來西北颱降雨預測之參考。

關鍵字

權重法 ； 案例式推理 ； 歐式距離法 ； 西北颱

並列摘要

In this research the 206 typhoons’ category data from 1950 to 2009 were set up in an information file by using the minimum atmospheric pressure, the maximum wind velocity near the typhoon center, the moving velocity of the typhoon during their landing Taiwan and also radius of typhoon, rainfall quantity, maximum wind velocity near the typhoon center from the whole passway etc. The Case-Based Reasoning method was used to estimate the rainfall of northwesterly-wind typhoon and then compared the estimated rainfall with the observed rainfall to find the relative error.
The Euclidean distance and weighted methods were considered as the criteria for the Case-Based Reasoning to get the ways of similarity. When the Euclidean distance method was used to find the similarity, the total average error between the estimated rainfall and the observed rainfall is 24.97%. When the weighted method was used to find the similarity, the total average error between the estimated rainfall and the observed rainfall is 19.66%. When the average estimated rainfall of the two methods was compared with the observed rainfall, the total average error is 21.33%.
The results of this research can be used as a reference for northwesterly-wind typhoon rainfall forecast.

並列關鍵字

the weighted method ； the Euclidean distance method ； case-based reasoning method ； northwesterly-wind typhoon

參考文獻

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